Northern Ireland

Tom Collins: Sunak offers DUP cover to leave corner

Tom Collins
Tom Collins Tom Collins

The French have a phrase for it: ‘Plus ça change, plus c’est le même chose’ – 'the more things change, the more they stay the same'

The phrase could have been coined for the Windsor Framework – surely the most clumsily-titled international agreement of recent times – and it sums up neatly the predicament of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP.

One thing you can say for Donaldson, he is a master craftsman when it comes to the art of painting himself into a corner.

As for his party? Well, if the DUP can be relied on for one thing, it is making the wrong call whenever the opportunity arises.

Since David Cameron made his misjudged decision to hold a referendum on European Union membership, the DUP has consistently aligned itself with the wrong side, at times using its political clout to disadvantage its own electorate (nothing new there) and to undermine the economic stability of the United Kingdom as a whole.

It has thrown in its lot with rogues and charlatans on the Tory right and the union with Great Britain, and the place of unionism/loyalism within it, is unquestionably weaker as a result.

The deal Rishi Sunak came to sell to the people of Northern Ireland yesterday (the ‘everything changes’ bit of the equation) was certainly ‘better for unionism’ than the protocol negotiated by Boris Johnson.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pictured during a visit to Coca-Cola HBC in Lisburn. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pictured during a visit to Coca-Cola HBC in Lisburn. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pictured during a visit to Coca-Cola HBC in Lisburn. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire

The so-called ‘Stormont Brake’ (some Foreign Office wit was surely up to mischief with that phrase) gives the appearance of control for locally-elected politicians – assuming the Assembly gets up and running again.

But the fact remains there is still a border in the Irish Sea – albeit one that allows safe passage for Sammy Wilson’s English sausages (‘the more things stay the same’).

Not for the first time, this deal is worse than the one the DUP could have had, but rejected.

It was party to the downfall of Theresa May’s government, and with it the so-called ‘backstop’ arrangement which would have prevented that figurative border off the Northern Ireland coast.

It is clear from early reaction on the Tory right that Sunak has successfully called their bluff; ministers like Steve Baker who were on ‘resignation watch’ have held their noses; and, in any case, Labour’s support will easily get the Coke-swilling prime minister over the line in any parliamentary vote.

Sunak needed this deal with Europe more than he needs the DUP. The British economy is tanking. Repairing the rupture with Europe is critical to his economic strategy, and Britain’s hope of stabilising itself. Unwittingly or not, he admitted Britain’s monstrous error in opting for a hard-Brexit when he extolled the benefits of the north’s unfettered access to the European market during yesterday’s visit.

The UK could have had Brexit and that too if Johnson had played a different game.

From Sunak’s perspective, it matters little what the DUP thinks or does now. It has little influence in parliament; it is no threat to this deal; and (after Baroness Foster’s snide comments about the king’s meeting with Ursula von der Leyen) few friends at court.

The only place Donaldson can make a difference is back home where he has the opportunity to make the best of things, get the Assembly up and running and, with the other parties, start to fix the many problems which beset his voters. Sunak has given him cover to do so.

Donaldson has two choices – side with the ghosts of unionism’s past in the TUV and Loyalist Communities Council, or acknowledge the world has changed and change with it.