Northern Ireland

Analysis: Suspected New IRA attack not a surprise to some

The New IRA is being linked to an explosion the Strabane on Thursday
The New IRA is being linked to an explosion the Strabane on Thursday The New IRA is being linked to an explosion the Strabane on Thursday

THE attempt by dissident republicans to kill two PSNI officers in Strabane has sent a shockwaves through some circles but informed observers will not have been taken by surprise.

A significant attack after a period of relative inactivity by one of the main anti-agreement groups had been expected by some.

PSNI Assistant Chief Constable Bobby Singleton has said "given the location of the attack and previous incidents, a strong line of inquiry would be the New IRA".

While other hardline groups remain active, including the Continuity IRA and Arm na Poblachta, the suspicion of New IRA involvement will be shared by many within the wider republican movement and beyond.

In March it was confirmed that the British government had lowered the threat level posed by dissident republicans from severe to substantial - meaning attacks were still likely.

That development came after analysis of intelligence by MI5 and at the time Chief Constable Simon Byrne said the move "signals a success".

Read more:

  • Dissident republicans in Northern Ireland - what do they want? An explainer
  • Who are the New IRA?
  • Who were the Provisional IRA?

That assessment will have been seen in some quarters as a red flag moment with the potential to prompt a response from hardline republican groups.

Intense state surveillance of suspects and the inevitable disruption that follows is believed by some to have played a part in a reduction in visible activity by all republican paramilitary groups.

Since 2020 around a dozen people have also been arrested and charged as a result of separate MI5-led stings targeting the New IRA.

Those charged deny the allegations.

Some onlookers believe a security force clampdown came after writer Lyra McKee was shot dead by the group as she watched a riot in Derry in 2019.

The attack on Thursday will have been, in part, driven by an attempt by hardliners to demonstrate they retain both capacity and capability.

In recent months the New IRA has been the most active militant republican group.

In August it claimed that shots were fired at the PSNI during a republican bonfire event in the Bogside area of Derry.

Bomb components found in the city in March were also linked to the group.

A month earlier it said it was responsible for shooting a 19-year-old man in the leg in Strabane.

It also has a recent history of attacks involving mortar-style devices in Strabane.

In September 2019 an unfired 'mini rack' of mortars was discovered close to Strabane PSNI station while in March 2017 it claimed it was "confident" it struck a PSNI vehicle with a deadly EFP(explosively formed projectile) mortar in the town.