Northern Ireland

John Manley: The necessity to resolve the protocol remains paramount

Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire
Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire

THERE'S zero expectation that today's recall of the assembly will yield any breakthrough in the political impasse that has left the institutions dormant since the DUP pulled Paul Givan out of the executive in February.

Today's Stormont sitting, initiated by Sinn Féin, is effectively an open mic session to berate the DUP, potentially the first shots in what is likely to be a particularly hostile election campaign. The secretary of state, buoyed after surviving Rishi Sunak's reshuffle, continues to stress that if tonight's one minute past midnight deadline passes without an executive being restored then we are heading for an election.

From tomorrow, the caretaker ministers who have led their departments for most of this year with one arm tied behind their backs, will no longer be in post, replaced by civil servants with limited powers, constrained even further by legal uncertainty. Stormont's politics has never been perfect but this is a near nadir, paralysis imposed by a party spooked by reinvigorated nationalism.

The legislation passed earlier this year after being agreed in 2020's New Decade New Approach means the election must take place within 12 weeks of the deadline passing, however, the combative Chris Heaton-Harris has signalled that he won't waste any time. We could go to the polls in January but it's argued that Christmas would fall in the middle of campaigning, greatly diminishing the already low levels of enthusiasm for a rerun of May's election. Seemingly nobody wants an election yet all the parties insist they don't fear one. Sinn Féin, the DUP and Alliance would be expected to hold their own, perhaps gaining or losing one or two seats, while there's potential for the SDLP and Ulster Unionists – the parties that together delivered the Good Friday Agreement – to be all but wiped out.

On the other side of the election, whenever it takes place, little will have changed. It'll likely cement unionist opposition to the protocol but that will only encourage further intransigence. As illustrated in yet another poll today, the protocol enjoys popular support and it's clear the business community on the whole back the post-Brexit trade arrangements. There's widespread acknowledgement that unionist concerns should assuaged to some degree yet it is unacceptable that those who helped precipitate this mess be allowed to veto sensible solutions that provide unprecedented economic opportunities.

The solution lies with London and a dysfunctional Tory government. Talk of joint authority is perhaps a little premature and mildly facetious but a post-election return to direct rule and the same cycle of deadlines and polls is unpalatable. Its difficult to predict where the British government goes next but if some semblance of sanity and normality is restored then a rekindled relationship with Dublin and Brussels is necessary, as the megaphone diplomacy and solo runs of recent months have proved counter-productive. They need to sort the protocol – not dismantle it – for good but the DUP also needs a reality check.