IT’S pointless looking for a thread of logic or consistency amid the DUP’s recent antics. It appears that under Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s leadership the party makes decisions on the hoof and gives little thought to the implications. Pulling Paul Givan out of the executive hasn’t played out especially well. It certainly hasn’t led to any resolution of the issues around the protocol, yet it has hamstrung efforts to combat a very real cost of living crisis and prevented executive-led interventions on a range of other issues, and all while only a small but vocal minority gets agitated over the Irish Sea border. It looks far from a clever strategy.
Likewise, the decision to co-opt Paul Rankin into the assembly seat vacated by Edwin Poots is undoubtedly a curious one. The expectation was that when the opportunity arose, Sir Jeffrey would nominate himself, fulfilling his stated aim of returning to the assembly. In his defence, it provides a profile for a third assembly election candidate in Lagan Valley, but surely Stormont’s new recruit must realise that there’s only an outside chance that he’ll be back in the next mandate.
The approach adopted by the DUP leader serves two purposes – both of which potentially make him look weak. By ensuring there’s no imminent Westminster by-election in Lagan Valley, Sir Jeffrey puts off the possibility of a humiliating defeat for his party. This is not what you’d expect of someone confident in his leadership, who believes there’s a deep groundswell of opposition to the protocol.
Secondly, there’s a sense that Sir Jeffrey is hedging his bets and knows there may not be an assembly to return to immediately after the election. Ostensibly, this is about the protocol but the real cause of his unease is the strong possibility that Sinn Féin will be the largest party after May 5. A reminder from Jim Allister on Saturday that a Sinn Féin first minister needs a “unionist stooge party to take the role of deputy first minister” must no doubt be ringing in the DUP leader’s ears. Sir Jeffrey will be reluctant to adhere to this requirement but the alternative is arguably more difficult to contemplate. For all devolution’s faults, it is still the electorate’s preference and any party who hinders regional accountability for a prolonged period is likely to be punished at the polls – and that’s before we talk about absent MLAs’ pay.
The election is likely to deliver a few home truths for the DUP and some uncharacteristic self-reflection will be necessary. Until then, however, the party seems determined to behave as if it's situation normal, when everything suggests nothing could be further from the truth.
