Northern Ireland

Unionism hopes of overturning protocol with Stormont vote 'extremely far fetched'

Christopher Stalford said the assembly vote is one of three ways to abolish the protocol
Christopher Stalford said the assembly vote is one of three ways to abolish the protocol Christopher Stalford said the assembly vote is one of three ways to abolish the protocol

THE author of books on unionism's two biggest parties has described DUP hopes of revoking the Northern Ireland Protocol through an assembly vote as "extremely far fetched".

Professor Jon Tonge of the University of Liverpool said it was difficult to see the unionist bloc making any gains at the next Stormont election, never mind the additional five seats required to win a vote on the Irish Sea border.

The DUP, Ulster Unionists, TUV and independent unionist Claire Sugden currently account for 40 of the assembly's 90 seats. Under the deal struck between the British government and the EU, MLAs will be periodically asked to give consent to the trading arrangements in Articles 5-10 of the Withdrawal Agreement, with the first vote due to take place in December 2024 and every four years thereafter.

Parties opposed to the protocol would need to reach the threshold of 45 in order to withdraw consent.

South Belfast MLA Christopher Stalford, a supporter of new DUP leader Edwin Poots, has said the vote is one of three ways to abolish the protocol.

"One is that the prime minister has a change of heart on the issue… two, the legal challenge that has been launched succeeds – and I sincerely hope that it will – but if it doesn’t, then the third way in the law is to have 45 unionists elected to Stormont," he told the BBC.

"And if 45 members of the assembly vote to revoke the protocol, then the protocol goes, and that’s where coming into the next assembly election, I think that it’s important that unionists are working together and cooperating in order to achieve that number.”

However, according to Fact Check NI, Mr Stalford's claim that the vote would overturn the protocol is inaccurate, as it only governs limited changes.

In a scenario in which opponents of the Irish Sea border win a majority and the assembly withholds consent, the protocol will continue to apply in its existing form for a further two years.

"In this case, the UK-EU Joint Committee established under the Withdrawal Agreement to oversee the protocol will make recommendations to the UK and the EU on alternatives to Articles 5–10 of the protocol for avoiding a hard border and protecting the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement," Fact Check NI says.

"It is then up to the UK and EU to negotiate new arrangements that replace Articles 5–10 but which still meet the objectives of the protocol, including avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland."

Fact Check NI says that even if a simple majority votes against giving consent, the "remainder of the protocol still stands".

But according to Prof Tonge there is little prospect of unionism gaining the necessary majority in the assembly to trigger a review of the protocol.

He said the consent vote was the least likely to succeed of the "three-point plant" cited by Mr Stalford.

"To achieve the 45 votes required would be an extraordinary feat because it's impossible to see where the gains are going to come from unless there is complete implosion within nationalism," the author of DUP - From Power to Protest said.

"An increased percentage of the population is no longer voting for unionist parties and all movement is towards the centre so it would be extremely far fetched to think that somehow unionism can make up that ground."