AS we live through these difficult times, we’re all looking for ways to think of other more normal things.
So, what about those two major opinion poll questions. Should there be a NI border poll? And if there was one, what way would you vote?
It has been said there are differences between the various polls and surveys on this issue, and there are - there always are, especially if the polls are run at different times.
These differences are often exaggerated as the various sides promote (or spin) the results to suit their own agenda, and this is particularly true with a hotly-debated issue like a border referendum.
However, there is one important border poll result that all the polls and surveys agree on – and that’s support for NI to remain in the UK.
All polls/surveys over the past 3-4 years have this key status quo result at around 50 per cent (give or take a few percentage points either way) - this includes from the Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey, QUB, LucidTalk, the Liverpool University post 2019-election survey, digital publisher thedetail, and Lord Ashcroft polls.
The remaining approximately 50 per cent varies widely in the polls between pro a united Ireland and don't knows.
This isn’t that surprising as a united Ireland is still the unknown, and even fervent republicans admit it has yet to be defined in terms of its structure and how it would work.
The differences may also be connected with the poll methodology, as online polls (eg from LucidTalk and Lord Ashcroft) always show a much lower number of ‘don’t knows’ than face-to-face surveys like the NILT, and the recent Liverpool University survey.
This is partly due to the comfort of confidentiality that’s inherent in taking a poll online, in private, on your own PC/laptop/smartphone device, compared to an open face-to-face interview.
In the latter case, it’s easier to opt for the ‘don’t know/not sure’ answer as the safe way out of a direct interview situation that you may be uncomfortable with (even subconsciously).
Mind you a 50 per cent poll score for the union (ie NI in the UK) is not that high.
Some unionists engage in this debate by stating the other side of the argument, saying support for a united Ireland is only 20-30 per cent (NB and that’s only in some polls).
But when unionists are then asked about running an actual NI border referendum, they say no.
This is puzzling, because if an actual border referendum produced a result of only 20-30 per cent support for a united Ireland, then that would probably secure NI’s UK constitutional position for generations, and seriously undermine the Irish republican movement (and Sinn Féin) at the same time.
An additional point to note about the border poll question is that it is asking people what they think they will do if a certain event arises (ie a border poll) at some indeterminate date in the future.
However, human beings are not very good with these sorts of hypothetical predictions.
Yes, respondents may think they know what way they will vote in a border referendum, ie they are answering the poll questions honestly, but in reality, a lot of them really don’t know.
In fact, they may not even begin to really know until a border referendum is scheduled, and an actual campaign period is underway.
This may look as if we’re knocking our own business – but we’re not, as polls are always useful as long as the results are interpreted the right way, and in the right context.
Polls provide a good ‘feel’ for current opinion, but are like the weather forecast, ie they can only give a broad approximate view of what may happen in the future, according to what the current public opinion is today.
After all, public opinion comes from the public, and the public is made up of human beings, and they can be changeable and sometimes unpredictable.
:: Bill White is managing director of Belfast polling and market research company LucidTalk. Twitter: @LucidTalk.
