Northern Ireland

No-deal Brexit favours united Ireland, says Tory peer

Brexit continues to dominate every area of British politics 
Brexit continues to dominate every area of British politics  Brexit continues to dominate every area of British politics 

THE Tory peer who for the past decade was his party’s most senior adviser on Northern Ireland has warned of adverse consequences for the union if Boris Johnson fails to strike a deal with the EU.

Lord Jonathan Caine, who was an aide to six Conservative secretaries of state dating back to the early 1990s, voted to remain in the EU because he believed Brexit would upset the “delicate and precious equilibrium established by the 1998 agreement”.

He believes the referendum result should be honoured but argues that any “severe economic impact” on the north resulting from the UK’s departure from the EU will likely lead to a surge in support for Irish unity.

Speaking exclusively to The Irish News at Westminster yesterday, Lord Caine said the restoration of the devolved institutions was unlikely in the “near term” and that any withdrawal agreement secured by the British government wouldn’t be “hugely different from backstop”.

Sacked in July when Boris Johnson became Tory leader, it is thought the former Northern Ireland Office spad was not retained due to his long standing friendship with David Cameron.

Leeds-based Lord Caine is philosophical about his departure from Belfast and insists his association with the north will continue, a pledge reflected in his maiden speech in the House of Lords earlier this month.

He says he sympathises with and respects those who argue that “you make your own laws and are accountable to the people through the ballot box”.

“But in the end I voted remain because as a Conservative I will always advocate stability and order over the unknown and I’m not sure anything I’ve seen over the past few years would make me change that view,” he says.

Lord Jonathan Caine
Lord Jonathan Caine Lord Jonathan Caine

“I was also deeply concerned about the impact that leave would have on what I like to call the delicate and precious equilibrium that was established by the 1998 agreement. In particular, as someone who believes in the union, I was primarily concerned about the impact this would have on nationalism and ultimately therefore on political stability in Northern Ireland and across the island of Ireland.”

He acknowledges that the Irish border wasn’t given due consideration by both politicians and the media in Britain ahead of the 2016 referendum, the result of which has “brought about a conversation about a united Ireland that wasn’t there before”.

However, he believes that if there were a border poll in the near future there would be a “comfortable majority in support of the current constitutional arrangements”.

But if there is a hard border the union will come under pressure.

“If we get this wrong and there is a severe economic impact on Northern Ireland and the island of Ireland then there is a possibility that support for a United Ireland will increase – the onus is on the UK government and the EU to get this right.”

Lord Caine does not advocate a second referendum, believing the “first was divisive enough” and he is convinced Boris Johnson is making a genuine effort to secure a deal.

He believes there needs to flexibility on both sides and appreciates that the Republic and the EU must safeguard their own interests. Lord Caine says he supported the Withdrawal Agreement and its measures for ensuring a free-flowing border.

“I didn’t see the backstop like many of my colleagues did as some kind of EU trick to keep us locked into the Customs Union and EU forever,” he says.

However, he would oppose a Northern Ireland-only backstop, arguing there’s “little point in avoiding a hard border in Ireland by putting up a hard border in the United Kingdom”.

Ultimately though, he reckons that if there is a deal it won’t be “hugely different” from the what Theresa May secured.

He would like to see those who advocate ties with Britain to modernise in a manner similar to what the Tories underwent while David Cameron was leader and define themselves more by “what they’re in favour of rather than against”.

“The demographics have changed and constitutional status quo will rely on the support of moderate nationalists,” he says, echoing a point made by Peter Robinson in 2012.

He is reticent when it comes to criticising the DUP but conveys a clear sense that the party’s Brexit stance could prove counter-productive.

“I think what helps the union and Northern Ireland’s position within the United Kingdom is political stability within Northern Ireland – that means devolved government, power sharing and both parts of community take responsibility for governing but Brexit has led more people than I’d like to question the union.”

On the prospects for restoring the institutions any time soon, he isn’t optimistic about a process that appears to be petering out.

He says Secretary of Sate Julian Smith has “the Devil’s own job”.

“I wish him well but my instinct is that at the moment with Brexit, the RHI inquiry outcome, and the prospect of a Westminster election I don’t think we’re going to see Stormont back in the near term – and I say that with huge regret.”

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Who is Jonathan Caine?

Jonathan Caine first came to Northern Ireland in 1988 as a young Tory researcher. In the early 1990s, he became an adviser to Peter Brooke and served under a further five secretaries of state.

The 53-year-old, whose paternal grandfather was from Co Mayo, was born in Leeds, Yorkshire and is a keen cricket and rugby league fan.

He was made a lord in David Cameron’s resignation honours in 2016.