Northern Ireland news

Brexit polls are neck and neck

Recent opinion polls on the EU referendum indicate an increase in support for the Vote Leave movement
Gareth McKeown

NORTHERN Ireland has strong reservations about a UK exit from the European Union.

Research of 1,351 employees in Northern Ireland from has revealed that 61% are concerned about Brexit and 36% said they were against Brexit. Of greater surprise is that 77% of Northern Irish employees surveyed believe Brexit will push the UK economy into recession.

Another poll published in the Belfast Telegraph last week revealed that 44% of people in Northern Ireland said the UK would be weaker if it voted to leave, with just 20% believing it would be stronger outside the EU.

The wider UK opinion polls conducted ahead of the EU referendum vote on June 23 indicate that the outcome will be decided by fine margins.

The majority of polls in the past six months have all favoured a stay, but in recent weeks momentum has been gathering for the leave movement and the gap narrowing.

The last four polls conducted on the phone and online reveal that the race is neck and neck with both the Institute of Commercial Management's (ICM) phone and online surveys showing a 52%-48% split in favour of leaving the EU.

An online poll carried out by BMG has it a stalemate 50-50, while a phone poll carried out by ORB International has the remain vote at 53% and leave at 47% Crucially in the latter poll in the space of just two weeks there has been an eight point swing in favour of the leave vote.



Bookmakers have shortened their odds on the chances of a Brexit following the results of recent polls.

Odds are now as short as 5/2 for a leave vote, however a vote to remain in the EU is still seen by the bookies as the most likely outcome.

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