Northern Ireland news

Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales likely to vote to remain in EU, says poll

The Union flag and the European Union flag fly outside Europe House in London. A poll suggests Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales may favour a Remain vote in the EU referendum
Ian Jones, Press Association

VOTERS in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are likely to choose to remain in the European Union, if the latest opinion polls are correct.

Very few polls have been published in Northern Ireland.

But the most recent, by Ipsos Mori, suggested 44 per cent of voters thought Britain would be weaker outside the EU, while 20 per cent said the country would be stronger.

Over a third – 36 per cent – were undecided.

A slightly older poll, carried out by market research firm Millward Brown, put Remain on 55 per cent, Leave on 23 per cent and Don't Know on 22 per cent.

With surveys in London also suggesting strong support for staying in the EU, the result of the referendum on June 23 could hang on the verdict of voters across the rest of England.

The latest opinion poll of the electorate in Scotland, conducted by ICM, puts Remain on 54 per cent, Leave on 32 per cent and Don't Know on 14 per cent.

Every poll in Scotland so far this year has put Remain ahead of Leave.

In Wales the race looks like being a lot closer. The latest opinion poll puts Remain on 40 per cent, just one percentage point ahead of Leave on 39 per cent, while Don't Know is on 22 per cent. The survey was conducted by YouGov.

In the six Welsh polls published so far this year, Remain has been in front in four while Leave has been ahead in two. The three most recent polls have all shown Remain with a small lead.

In London, voters appear to be backing Remain in large numbers. The latest poll, published by Opinium, puts Remain on 51 per cent, Leave on 34 per cent and Don't Know on 15 per cent.

No polls have been published this year that include the views only of voters in England.

Recent UK-wide polls suggest that English voters could tip the overall result one way or the other, however.

The latest phone poll, by Survation, puts Remain on 44 per cent and Leave on 38 per cent, with Don't Know on 18 per cent. But the latest online poll, by BMG, puts Leave on 45 per cent, Remain on 44 per cent and Don't Know on 12 per cent.

Former SNP leader Alex Salmond has suggested that if Scotland votes Remain but the UK ends up exiting the EU thanks to people in England voting Leave, another referendum on Scottish independence could follow.

The Press Association's latest poll of polls, which uses a rolling seven-day average of all published polls, puts Remain on 46 per cent, Leave on 42 per cent and Don't Know on 12 per cent.

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