Opinion

Analysis: Attack on John Caldwell most serious in a decade

An armed police officer on duty near the sports complex in the Killyclogher Road area of Omagh, Co Tyrone, where off-duty PSNI Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot a number of times by masked men in front of young people he had been coaching.
An armed police officer on duty near the sports complex in the Killyclogher Road area of Omagh, Co Tyrone, where off-duty PSNI Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot a number of times by masked men in front of young people he had been coaching. An armed police officer on duty near the sports complex in the Killyclogher Road area of Omagh, Co Tyrone, where off-duty PSNI Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot a number of times by masked men in front of young people he had been coaching.

The attempt to kill senior PSNI officer John Caldwell is the most serious to be carried out against police by dissident republicans in more than a decade.

Police believe the New IRA, the most active republican paramilitary group, was responsible.

The New IRA announced its formation in 2012 and has since grown into the largest and most deadly republican group.

It was formed after a merger between the Real IRA, Derry based Republican Action Against Drugs and some independent republicans based in the Mid Ulster area.

Last year the British government had lowered the threat level posed by republicans from severe to substantial - meaning attacks were still likely.

That development came after analysis of intelligence by MI5 and at the time Chief Constable Simon Byrne said the move "signals a success".

The PSNI's top officer may now regret this red flag moment, which always had the potential to provoke a response.

While the attack on Mr Caldwell, who was off duty, may have been prompted by an attempt by hardliners to demonstrate that they retain both capacity and capability, it’s not the full story.

It also highlights there are those within the wider republican community who remain committed to traditional republican values, which for some includes taking up arms.

Ideologically driven, political or demographic changes will factor little in their thinking.

The latest attack comes amid a flurry of activity by hardline groups opposed to the Good Friday Agreement, which was signed 25 years ago in April.

A forensics officer at work in the investigation into the attempted murder of DCI John Caldwell near Omagh. Picture by Pacemaker
A forensics officer at work in the investigation into the attempted murder of DCI John Caldwell near Omagh. Picture by Pacemaker A forensics officer at work in the investigation into the attempted murder of DCI John Caldwell near Omagh. Picture by Pacemaker

Last November an Improvised Explosive Device was launched at a PSNI patrol in the Co Tyrone town of Strabane.

The Irish News understands the device was a mortar known as an EFP (Explosively Formed Projectile), which was triggered using a command wire.

Within days a delivery driver was forced to drive a bomb in a hijacked car to a PSNI station in Derry by the group known as Arm na Poblachta.

A bomb alert in Derry last weekend, during which a viable device was discovered, is believed to involve the same group.

While the New IRA has used a range of explosive devices to target police in the past, it has also used firearms.

The close quarter nature of the attack on Mr Caldwell, who was off duty, demonstrates a departure from the usual tactics.

In the past gun attacks on police have tended to at a distance, which minimises the risk of return fire and increases the chances of escape.

In 2013 automatic weapons were used to fire on PSNI vehicles from the Ardoyne area as they made their way along the Crumlin Road in north Belfast.

In 2017 a PSNI officer was injured after he was shot at a petrol station a short distance away, also on the Crumlin Road.

In 2012 the organisation shot dead prison officer David Black as he made his way along the M1 motorway to Maghaberry Prison.

Firearms have also been used to kill civilians including Kevin Kearney in north Belfast in 2019.

A shot fired by a New IRA member also killed writer Lyra McKee as she observed a riot in Derry in 2019.

Republicans were also responsible for killing PSNI man Ronan Kerr after a bomb was planted under his car in Omagh in 2011.

Constable Ronan Kerr was murdered in Omagh in April 2011 (family handout/PA)
Constable Ronan Kerr was murdered in Omagh in April 2011 (family handout/PA) Constable Ronan Kerr was murdered in Omagh in April 2011 (family handout/PA)
Lyra McKee (PSNI/PA)
Lyra McKee (PSNI/PA) Lyra McKee (PSNI/PA)