THE LAST time the DUP gathered at Belfast’s Crowne Plaza Hotel it was to ratify Edwin Poots’ leadership in May last year. Things went a bit pear shaped on that occasion as disquiet at the manner in which Arlene Foster had been defenestrated weeks earlier spilled out into the car park and onto live TV. You can assume there was a reluctance within the ranks to revisit the venue, only to be reminded of those ignominious scenes, but the alternatives were clearly limited. The DUP’s options are fewer by the day.
Less and less this party resembles the one that peaked under Peter Robinson’s tutelage. Accordingly what was billed as its ‘Autumn Conference’, ahead of which Sir Jeffrey Donaldson declined to do media interviews, was smaller, shorter and noticeably gloomier – around 250 delegates, no guest speakers of note and none of the London-based media that graced it with their presence during the confidence and supply deal with the Tories. The smaller than usual crowd can be explained to some degree by the fallout from Covid but the number of exhibitors (the various charities and lobby groups who pay for space close to the conference hall) was also down, the appetite to engage with those of apparent influence tempered by Stormont’s absence and the prospect of leaner times.
Saturday’s proceedings got off to an unnecessarily unedifying start when freelance journalist and commentator Amanda Ferguson was prevented from entering by the party’s chief press officer John Robinson, only for Sir Jeffrey to overturn her exclusion in what could perhaps be a rehearsal of an even greater climbdown in the weeks ahead.
It was a gathering that saw plenty of bravado from the stage and brave faces from the audience; there was an old school ‘no surrender’ theme yet a sense that not everyone’s convinced by the current strategy, or lack thereof. Among those listening to a series of flat speeches were five MLAs elected for the first time in May, who must be wondering if they’ll ever get their bums on Stormont’s blue benches. Likewise, the councillors set to fight the local government elections next spring – the same representatives who seemingly failed to cop on as they allowed those iniquitous protocol measures through – must surely be wondering how the winter of discontent will play out on the doorsteps.
The thaw in relations between London and Dublin will have unnerved the DUP, especially when it has raised expectations so high. Sir Jeffrey told the conference he didn’t fear an election, while the attacks on Sinn Féin – always a predictable distraction – suggest there’s one eye on a forthcoming campaign that’ll turbo charge the usual rabble-rousing around the first minister’s post.
The leader’s first conference speech, coming after weeks of him keeping a low profile, received a positive reception though what he said was largely recycled material. There was the decade-old – and as yet unrealised – notion of reaching beyond unionism’s traditional base and an appeal for unionist unity that smelled a bit of desperation.
There’s no dissent in the DUP ranks at present yet neither is there evidence of any dynamism. They’ve created so much hype around the protocol that it consumes all the oxygen, meaning other issues are sidelined, everybody in stasis, like the institutions, waiting for an outcome. Sir Jeffrey’s next move will be decisive but it would appear he’s yet to decide what it’s going to be.
