Opinion

Analysis: Beattie 'bounce' expected to flatline in wake of Twitter controversy

Political Correspondent John Manley
Political Correspondent John Manley Political Correspondent John Manley

DOUG Beattie is nothing if not a fighter. Almost three decades in the British Army, serving in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Iraq and Somalia not only breeds a culture of chauvinism and jingoism but resilience too. Revelations about the Ulster Unionist leader’s historical tweets, coming on the back of his crass joke about Edwin Poots’ wife, had many believing he was toast. There was an expectation that yesterday morning’s news bulletins would be announcing his resignation and that the focus would quickly switch to discussions about the existential crisis facing the UUP in the mouth an election.

But in a move that may yet prove to be his making, the Upper Bann MLA chose to face the music, to open himself and his social media past to scrutiny. It made uncomfortable listening for everybody, not least the former Royal Irish Rangers captain, yet his honesty, alongside his fallibility, came to the fore. He didn't seek to justify his action, just explain and contextualise them.

There are those who believe Doug Beattie should be cancelled, no matter how contrite he is or how much he claims to have learned from this unedifying episode. However, it would appear there are many others willing to give the Ulster Unionist leader a second chance. Some of the sympathy may be based on the misguided view that what he did on Saturday night and previously was harmless banter, while it’s possible many see themselves in his situation – a man reared in a different age having to adjust to a new social realities, unsure but receptive to change.

When we’re reminded where Doug Beattie’s head was ten years ago, let’s look at it in the context of where our political parties stood a decade ago, almost unanimous in their opposition to same-sex marriage, abortion and trans rights, many using language that would no longer be acceptable.

Whereas many MLAs resisted and continue to resist change, Doug Beattie has embraced it and in the almost eight months since becoming Ulster Unionist leader has sought to transform and modernise his party.

His journey from the unreconstructed, casually xenophobic, woman-baiting soldier to the leader of a more liberal, tolerant, less confrontational brand of unionism is in many ways the embodiment of the trajectory his party has embarked on – albeit a thus far incomplete one.

There’s no doubt that the last few days has damaged Doug Beattie and therefore the UUP’s outside chance of once again becoming unionism’s largest party. At the weekend he was celebrating very positive poll ratings but may now see the ‘Beattie bounce’ flat-lining amid the negative fallout. Support from his fellow MLAs will help but on the other hand it could just underline the notion among the electorate that such antiquated attitudes are rife within the UUP.

These difficulties are most likely to benefit Alliance, which like the UUP is seeking encourage those normally shy small ‘u’ unionists into the polling booth. It’s a demographic that over the coming days will be weighing up whether the Ulster Unionist rebrand has been exposed as a cosmetic makeover or if its leader’s indiscretions are merely a blip that can be easily forgotten.

Meanwhile, the DUP is unlikely to enjoy any significant lift from the controversy, arguably because much of its core support would be largely untroubled by the views expressed in the tweets. The party will no doubt try to exploit its rival's difficulties but may find itself on weak ground, given the past record of some of its elected representatives.

The consensus among commentators is that this is largely an intra-unionist argument and is therefore unlikely to halt Sinn Féin's drive to become Stormont's largest party.