Opinion

John Manley: Political temperature rises as Sinn Féin smells DUP vulnerability

Conor Murphy spelled out Sinn Féin's ultimatum to Edwin Poots. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire
Conor Murphy spelled out Sinn Féin's ultimatum to Edwin Poots. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire Conor Murphy spelled out Sinn Féin's ultimatum to Edwin Poots. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire

DUP CRITICS of the putsch that saw Arlene Foster displaced say it was ill-thought-out and that Edwin Poots and his supporters failed to foresee the full consequences of their actions. A number of things, for example the surprise election of Paula Bradley as deputy leader and Mervyn Storey declining to take the first minister’s post, support this argument.

What Mr Poots and his chief lieutenant Ian Paisley surely didn’t see coming was a crisis that could collapse the institutions and potentially kill-off Stormont forever.

It has been made clear in recent weeks that if commitments weren’t given to bring forward Irish language legislation then Sinn Féin’s support for the nomination of Paul Givan as first minister would be jeopardised. Last week saw the usual shadow boxing but over the past 48 hours, coinciding with Mrs Foster’s resignation and the countdown on the seven-day renomination period beginning, matters have escalated.

Mr Poots is still saying the same non-specific things in regards to following through on New Decade New Approach pledges but this is clearly no longer good enough for Sinn Féin, which now wants unambiguous commitments before agreeing to play ball.

Conor Murphy yesterday delivered the Sinn Féin ultimatum, calling for the two governments to get involved to negotiate not an agreement but the implementation of an agreement. Stormont’s incapacity to resolve its own difficulties is highlighted yet again.

Republicans’ frustration is understandable. Irish language legislation has been fudged and delayed for a decade and a half. Rights and protections afforded to Scots Gaelic and Welsh have been denied to the indigenous language in this part of Ireland, further politicising a cultural heritage issue that has become unfairly and disproportionately toxified.

But is this one issue worth collapsing devolution for and triggering a fresh election – or is Sinn Féin merely engaged in a game of brinkmanship to demonstrate to its base that it won’t roll over?

The stakes are undoubtedly high. Opinion polls show Sinn Féin is riding high in the Republic but north of the border the picture is less clear. Initiating the institutions’ collapse, albeit on a strong point of principle, may not play well with an electorate which after 18 months of Covid is seeking some stability and certainty.

Edwin Poots and the DUP will certainly not relish an election without the protocol issues resolved and with a deep schism in the party still evident. Couple these strong headwinds with poor polling the DUP was experiencing pre-coup and it looks like a potential disaster awaits the new leader if a snap election is called.

Sinn Féin can no doubt smell DUP vulnerability, which may well be one of the reasons the party is ramping up its demands around Irish language legislation. The crucial question, and one that we are likely to get an answer to over the coming week, is how much of its agitation is for the optics?

The possibility of a post-dated agreement that defers confrontation and the potential collapse of the institutions until the autumn still appears the most likely agreed outcome but the political temperature looks set to rise again before things settle down.