Opinion

ANALYSIS: Agent infiltration likely to bring about end of New IRA

Forensics officers remove the remains of the a van outside the Courthouse in Derry following an explosion.
Forensics officers remove the remains of the a van outside the Courthouse in Derry following an explosion. Forensics officers remove the remains of the a van outside the Courthouse in Derry following an explosion.

THIS case gives a remarkable and rare glimpse into the murky world of the spooks – insight into British intelligence, their war against violent republicanism and the lengths to which they will go to snare their target.


It is a case that to date involves four police forces working with MI5. It crosses jurisdictions on both sides of the border, crosses water to Scotland and crosses continents to the Middle East.


The six people who appeared in court on Monday bring to eight the number of suspects remanded to prison so far. Another man has since been charged while one more is still being questioned.


All charges relate to attendance at two meetings, one at Sixmilecross in February and another in Omagh in July.


The use of covert recordings of suspected paramilitary members is not new. However, the technology used in this case is clearly of a much higher quality than that used in previous stings. The use of an informer, someone who appears to have been bedded in for many years and who had worked himself into a position of influence in the New IRA, shows long-term commitment to the operation. And yet those present at the meetings seemed, by their words and actions, oblivious to this hidden danger.


The use of 'entrapment' and what role the agent played in encouraging any alleged crimes will no doubt form part of the defence.


MI5’s Northern Ireland headquarters at Palace Barracks, just outside Holywood, Co Down, has an annual budget in excess of £324 million for combating Northern Ireland-related terrorism alone. This huge budget clearly came in useful in the planning of an unprecedented and lengthy operation against the New IRA. The organisation came about following a merger between the Real IRA, the vigilante group Republican Actions Against Drugs and Co Tyrone republicans in 2012. The merger didn't last long. The fragmented organisation has in recent years been most active in Lurgan and Derry, where it had started recruiting much younger members.


The New IRA admitted responsibility for the murders of prison officers David Black and Adrian Ismay and that of writer Lyra McKee. The most active of the dissident groupings, it was also responsible for a bomb that exploded outside Derry courthouse in January last year and a shooting at a garage on north Belfast's Crumlin Road in 2017 during which a police officer was injured.


But the organisation has been dealt a near-fatal blow by this latest crackdown. Younger members could well try to regroup but they now know what lengths the spooks will go to in order to disrupt their activity.


More damaging is the knowledge that an agent walked among them for so long. If he could betray them so easily and with such devastating consequences, how do they ever again trust the person to their right?


And so it is the agent infiltration, the physiological warfare, that will have a greater impact in bringing about the end of the New IRA.