Opinion

ANALYSIS: Don't expect Dáil election to bring major change

Taioseach Leo Varadkar with President Michael D Higgins following the Fine Gael leader's request to dissolve the Dáil ahead of a February 8 election. Picture by Damien Eagers/PA Wire
Taioseach Leo Varadkar with President Michael D Higgins following the Fine Gael leader's request to dissolve the Dáil ahead of a February 8 election. Picture by Damien Eagers/PA Wire Taioseach Leo Varadkar with President Michael D Higgins following the Fine Gael leader's request to dissolve the Dáil ahead of a February 8 election. Picture by Damien Eagers/PA Wire

WE knew an election in the Republic was coming but it wasn't expected quite so soon – and on a Saturday too?

It might be a case of exaggerating our own importance to link the timing of poll's announcement with the resolution of the Stormomt impasse, when it likely has more to do with Brexit, the exhaustion of the confidence and supply deal with Fianna Fáil, and dwindling support from the clutch of independents who've propped up the minority Fine Gael government for four years.

It'll be a relatively short campaign – little over three weeks – and we can expect much of it to centre on the taoiseach, who despite the best efforts of his opponents has managed to emerge from a series of domestic crises largely untarnished. Likewise, Leo Varadkar has appeared to transcend the Maria Bailey 'swing-gate' drama and former Dáil candidate Verona Murphy's controversial remarks about immigration, while advances in the social agenda will also play well for Fine Gael leader.

The message from Fine Gael will echo that from 2016 when under Enda Kenny the party stressed that its work was not yet done and that more time was required to fulfil its policy pledges.

Mr Varadkar leads his party into the February 8 election with the latest pre-Christmas opinion polls indicating Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are neck and neck at 27 per cent, suggesting that either's chances of forming a majority government are remote. As both have ruled out going into government with Sinn Féin, there's a strong likelihood that the administration will closely mirror the hotchpotch which has held power since 2016.

Support for Sinn Féin in the south tends to oscillate so its success next month will depend on where we are in the cycle – in December support stood at 20 per cent. Had last week's deal not been secured, Sinn Féin's opponents would have made much of the fact that Stormont remained offline yet it's restoration is unlikely to win the party too many votes.

A repeat of the drubbing the party got in May's European and local government elections would not reflect well on Mary Lou McDonald, who will be marking two years as leader a matter of days after the Dáil election. Sinn Féin's unique characteristics mean any post-election heave against the Dublin TD is unlikely but grassroot unrest could work its way up through the ranks. Similarly, another mediocre election for Michéal Martin could precipitate his exit and see him officially secure the ignominious status of being the only Fianna Fáil leader never to be taoiseach.

While Sinn Féin will continue to push its unity agenda throughout the campaign, the north isn't expected to figure prominently during a campaign that will dominated by the housing crisis, the economy, law and order, and the health service.

February elections aren't common and a bout of bad weather akin to Storm Brendan could impact on turn-out yet that could be offset with the potential advantage of polling on Saturday – as clear indication as any that the Republic of Ireland remains very much European.