Opinion

ANALYSIS: Maybe better to park this lacklustre talks process than create false expectation

Tanáiste Simon Covney and Karen Bradley were both present at the Stormont talks this week. Picture by Mal McCann
Tanáiste Simon Covney and Karen Bradley were both present at the Stormont talks this week. Picture by Mal McCann Tanáiste Simon Covney and Karen Bradley were both present at the Stormont talks this week. Picture by Mal McCann

After another low-key week of talks at Stormont, political correspondent John Manley ponders the potential for a breakthrough any time soon

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TANÁISTE Simon Coveney and Secretary of State Karen Bradley were both in Belfast this week providing hands-on input to a talks process that has been ongoing since early May, yet media coverage was sparse, to say the least.

When this latest round of negotiations aimed at restoring devolution began we were warned that there was only a "limited window" within which a deal could be struck.

Then the notional end of June deadline for reaching agreement came and went without as much as a shrug.

The process has spluttered on since, albeit with a short hiatus for the Twelfth. The two governments have pledged not to provide a "running commentary", which is no bad thing given that it would likely have all the dynamism of a sloth's siesta.

Depending on who you talk to, this week has seen both a "greater push" and a "laying of the groundwork for a soft landing".

The DUP and Sinn Féin have at least been talking and yesterday they signed a joint letter along with the other parties calling on Mrs Bradley to move the necessary legislation that would provide long-awaited compensation to victims of historical institutional abuse.

It was a welcome display of unity but the big ticket issues which divide the big two are still to be tackled.

In the coming weeks, Westminster and the Dáil will go into recess, while Mr Coveney and Mrs Bradley are expected to take a holiday – the latter may even be granted a period of extended leave as her main sponsor Theresa May hands over the Tory leadership baton.

The secretary of state was conspicuously absent from Westminster on Thursday as her Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill was passed by MPs with a raft of amendments, the Stormont process apparently taking precedence.

Her credibility is so shot these days that few cared but it was nonetheless peculiar behaviour.

Meanwhile, the various measures contained in the legislation relating to same-sex marriage and abortion have the potential to both impede and advance agreement by enabling Stormont's parties to absolve themselves of responsibility for tackling these thorny issues, while feigning protest.

In order for this to happen, the restoration of devolution must be stalled at least until October 21.

Given the influence of macro issues like Brexit, potential Westminster and Dáil elections, and the Tory/DUP confidence and supply deal, holding off on signing up to a deal looks like an appealing option.

After all, the template for plotting a pathway to Stormont's restoration exists in the form of last February's draft deal - though it's likely to need repackaged to provide the DUP with the necessary wriggle room.

The talks will continue on Monday for another week at least and while parking this lacklustre process until the autumn may look like the governments are conceding defeat, it was they who created false expectations in the first place.

The present climate is too volatile for forging a sustainable compromise and it makes more sense to wait than to cobble together a flawed deal.