Opinion

Analysis: All Brexit 'Plan Bs' have support but none commands a majority

A 'Remain' supporter stands across from the Palace of Westminster in London. Picture by Jonathan Brady, Press Association
A 'Remain' supporter stands across from the Palace of Westminster in London. Picture by Jonathan Brady, Press Association A 'Remain' supporter stands across from the Palace of Westminster in London. Picture by Jonathan Brady, Press Association

POLITICS became box office last night as the eyes of Ireland, Britain, Europe and beyond focused on Westminster and the outcome of the so-called meaningful vote. The fact that it was foregone conclusion didn't appear to detract from the drama, with news outlets offering saturation coverage anchored from Parliament Square, where a rock festival atmosphere prevailed throughout yesterday's build-up.

The manner in which this 'historic' event was presented suggested there'd be a degree of certainty in its aftermath but if British politics looked chaotic beforehand then perhaps we should now be bracing ourselves for something closer to a catastrophe.

The scale of the defeat for the prime minister was greater than most envisaged – easily eclipsing that Ramsay McDonald suffered nearly a century ago – but in many ways once the size of the margin surpassed 50, the figure didn't really matter. MPs are so deeply divided and at odds with each other about the best way forward that no plan, whether A, B or C, can command the necessary level of support to get it through parliament.

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When Theresa May postponed December's meaningful vote she must have believed that somehow circumstances would change in the extra month she gave herself ahead of last night's showdown. Ultimately, however, despite a reassuring tone from Brussels and a change of heart from a handful of her MPs, nothing substantive changed, leaving the Tory leader unable to convince a significant number from any of the various factions opposing the deal agreed with the EU in November. But any belief among those who voted down the deal that the landscape will somehow be transformed between now and March 29 is equally misplaced.

The dilemma for the Tory leader, and that facing any British prime minister who found themselves having to deliver Brexit following 2016's unexpected referendum result, is that it is impossible to build a constructive consensus at Westminster. Some MPs wish to remain and others are happy to crash out. The Labour leadership wants to force a general election, while the Lib Dems are urging a second vote. What this motley crew all agree on, if nothing else, is that supporting the withdrawal agreement does not advance their own agenda.

The EU meanwhile is sticking to its guns, knowing it must keep 27 member states on board while upholding the Good Friday Agreement by ensuring there is no hard border. The backstop provides the guarantee that the border will remain frictionless but its permanent status is what's rankling unionists on both sides of the Irish Sea. Without that permanence, however, it fails to fulfil its role as an insurance policy and simply becomes a temporary measure that can abandoned on political whim. And so the irresistible force of Westminster remains nose to nose with the immovable object that is Brussels.

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It's expected that an embattled and bruised Mrs May will return to Westminster today as MPs debate the much-anticipated no confidence vote tabled by Jeremy Corbyn in the immediate aftermath of last night's defeat for the government. Bizarrely, it's predicted that after heated exchanges and backing from the DUP, the prime minister will somehow survive.

What happens then is really anybody's guess.

Analysis: All Brexit 'Plan Bs' have support but none commands a majority
Analysis: All Brexit 'Plan Bs' have support but none commands a majority

The withdrawal deal as it stands looks dead and now the various options that were bandied about but not given consideration by the government ahead of the vote move higher up the agenda.

These include delaying Brexit by extending article 50 and seeking to renegotiate elements of the deal; presenting an entirely new deal based loosely around the Norway model; or reluctantly deciding to allow a second referendum. Less likely scenarios include cancelling Brexit altogether or crashing out with no deal.

Each of the above options would have some degree of support among MPs but typically none would command a majority.