Opinion

ANALYSIS: No deal advice signals the very things Brussels is pilloried for

What becomes of the border in a no deal scenario is anybody's guess. Picture by Margaret McLaughlin
What becomes of the border in a no deal scenario is anybody's guess. Picture by Margaret McLaughlin What becomes of the border in a no deal scenario is anybody's guess. Picture by Margaret McLaughlin

Ahead of Dominic Raab launching the British government's no deal advice yesterday, his cabinet colleague Liam Fox announced an export deal for dairy products to China that he claimed could benefit farmers in Northern Ireland.

The word 'could' is important here as it speaks volumes about the lack of certainty around life post-Brexit – and nowhere is this more marked than in the agrifood sector.

The international trade secretary said:"Lakeland Dairies in Northern Ireland is likely to be the main beneficiary of this deal."

What Mr Fox neglected to say is that Lakeland is Co Cavan-based milk processor that operates across 15 counties in the northern half of the island.

Its success on both sides of the border – it has a processing plants in Newtownards and Banbridge in Co Down – has largely been down to its ability to boost economies of scale by sourcing milk from farms in the Republic and the north, while moving its products freely across an invisible frontier.

In the past, its CEO Michael Hanley has played down the impact of Brexit but arguably he is among a small minority of business people who believe the ramifications of the UK's withdrawal from the EU will be minimal.

Unless the EU backstop plan is implemented to the letter, a no deal scenario will create all sorts of headaches for businesses who trade across the border.

The 25 documents published yesterday, covering everything from medicine, finance and farming, have done nothing to calm nerves among industry or those politicians who have grave concerns about Brexit. The advice points to increased bureaucracy and expense – the very things the EU has been persistently pilloried for.

Mr Raab's assertion that cross-border businesses ask Dublin about future trading arrangements was not only crass but sounded like he was abdicating responsibility for safeguarding jobs on this side of the Irish Sea. It was enough to make observers pine for his predecessor David Davis.

As October's deadline for a comprehensive withdrawal agreement approaches, the need for compromise and flexibility on both sides becomes increasingly apparent. We will no doubt watch things to go down to the wire before finding out whether the British government has the foresight, will, and ability to secure an accommodation that won't wreak havoc for the north's perennially vulnerable economy.