Opinion

ANALYSIS: Ian Paisley's actions spell all kinds of trouble

Boris Johnson and Ian Paisley during a visit to Wrightbus several years ago, when the then London mayor announced a £62m order for 195 Routemaster buses for London Transport
Boris Johnson and Ian Paisley during a visit to Wrightbus several years ago, when the then London mayor announced a £62m order for 195 Routemaster buses for London Transport Boris Johnson and Ian Paisley during a visit to Wrightbus several years ago, when the then London mayor announced a £62m order for 195 Routemaster buses for London Transport

The DUP has been embroiled before in scandal, as has Ian Paisley, but the immediate political consequences of their misdemeanours never amounted to that much. While Ian Paisley holds the honour of being among just a handful of Stormont ministers to have resigned, his political career hasn't suffered any real setback as a result – little over two years after stepping down as a junior minister in 2008 he succeeded his father as MP for North Antrim with a majority of more than 12,000.

This time, however, the ramifications of his failure to register two luxury family holidays paid for by the Sri Lankan government may be much more severe.

Arguably, the most significant threat to Mr Paisley's political career – or to his Westminster seat at least – comes in the form of a 'Recall Petition', an act of parliament introduced in 2016 that until yesterday was relatively unknown.

It means any sitting MP convicted of a criminal offence or who makes a serious breach of parliamentary rules, leading to a suspension from Westminster of more than 10 days, can be forced to vacate their seat, triggering a by-election.

For such a scenario to become a reality, ten per cent of the eligible electorate in Mr Paisley's constituency – around 7,000 people – must sign a petition. All indications last night suggested North Antrim could become the first Westminster constituency to apply the Recall Petition with both nationalists and disgruntled unionists eager to put their signatures to it.

At a basic level also, this episode is an embarrassment to Arlene Foster and the DUP at a time when the party is enjoying unprecendented power and exposure as a result of its confidence and supply deal with Theresa May's government.

However, rather than a mere image problem, the implications of Mr Paisley's 30 sitting days suspension could prove to be much more serious for both his party and the Tories. As a series of close run votes this week has shown, power is finely balanced at Westminster and every MP's vote counts.

Come September, we can again expect a series of crucial votes on Brexit and potentially a confidence vote in the government itself, where the margin is likely to come down to a handful of votes. The forced absence of a DUP MP when support for the government on the green benches is crucial, can only serve to undermine the confidence and supply deal.

On his side, Ian Paisley has his family name and the historic loyalty of his constituents, though the nature of his trangression could see the latter evaporate overnight, and no doubt his old advisory Jim Allister will be agitating in the weeks ahead. Moreover, those inside the DUP who dislike the former leader's son – and there are many – will be calling for him to face serious sanctions when the party's officers meet to consider his fate.

All things considered, it doesn't look good for the man who likely once harboured ambitions to succeed his father as DUP leader and Northern Ireland first minister.

Read more:

  • What did the lavish trips cost?
  • Undated selfie 'taken at 11th night bonfire' offered as proof Paisley was not in Sri Lanka
  • Video: Emotional Ian Paisley apologises for 'total failure' over rules breach
  • Ian Paisley has made headlines before for all the wrong reasons
  • Brian Feeney: Paisley faces biggest challenge of his chequered career (Premiun)