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Brexit: Economist calls for 'customs referendum' in Northern Ireland

Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs
Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs

A REFERENDUM should be held in Northern Ireland to decide what customs arrangements it will have after Brexit, a leading economist has said.

Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, said such a poll is the "least bad option" to resolve the impasse in negotiations between the UK and European Union.

Writing in the Sunday Independent, he said the "choice is binary" between Northern Ireland remaining in the customs territory of either the UK or EU.

"There is no fudging it. There is no halfway house. There is no 'special status'. Anyone who understands the mechanics of international trade understands this," he said.

He added: "Because the choice is binary and because both sides and have nailed their colours to the mast, the path back from a no-deal is hard to discern.

"Among the few possible ways out could be a referendum in Northern Ireland on which customs territory people north of the border want to be part of.

"It might let Leo Varadkar and Theresa May off the potentially career-ending hook that they are both now on."

Both the UK and EU insist they do not want a hard Irish border, such as customs posts, but disagree on how to achieve this.

They have disagreed on the EU's 'backstop' proposal in which Northern Ireland would effectively remain within the EU single market and customs union if no other solution is found.

Mr O'Brien said a referendum has "obvious and serious downsides, most notably that it would further polarise an already polarised society", but he said it "could legitimise whatever decision is eventually taken" and "could prevent the worst possible outcome for everyone next March".

"To be clear – a referendum in Northern Ireland is not a good idea. But in a dire situation when there are few good options, desperate measures can sometimes be necessary.

"A referendum may be the least bad option now."