CONSUMER price inflation has risen significantly this year and was just over 10 per cent in September, well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.
There are several reasons why inflation is so high. The biggest of these is the rise in energy prices as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A rise in the prices of imported goods is another significant factor, caused partly by supply chain problems across the world.
Developments in the UK are also playing a role in pushing inflation up. Companies have increased the prices of goods they sell in response to higher costs. Additionally, the labour market in the UK is extremely tight, with unemployment having fallen to 3.5 per cent and in Northern Ireland, it is even lower at 3 per cent.
Many of the businesses I speak to on my regular company visits here in Northern Ireland say they are struggling to fill job vacancies. This means they are having to offer higher wages to attract workers and they are passing on these higher costs into the prices of the services they provide.
One of the main reasons for the current labour shortage is that fewer people are actively seeking work following the pandemic, sadly in some cases due to long-term sickness.
The resulting inflation is hitting households and families hard, especially as the prices of some essentials such as energy and groceries have increased by more than 10 per cent. This is something that came across clearly during discussions with members of the public at a recent Citizen’s Panel we held in Northern Ireland. People have less money to spend on other things and this means that the output of the UK economy has started to fall.
It is very important that we get inflation back down to the Bank’s two per cent target. Low and stable inflation is part of the bedrock of the economy, allowing people to go about their daily lives and plan for the future with confidence.
This is why the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee increased interest rates at its latest meeting to 3 per cent. In total, since December 2021, we have increased our interest rate from 0.1 per cent to 3 per cent.
We understand that raising interest rates means that people’s mortgage payments are increasing at the same time as prices are rising. But the impact on everyone would be even worse if the Bank does not take strong action now to bring inflation down.
The Monetary Policy Committee may need to increase interest rates further over the coming months, but it thinks that less is likely to be needed than financial markets predict.
There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, but as things stand, we expect inflation to fall sharply from the middle of next year. We don’t expect the cost of energy to increase so quickly and the scheme the government recently announced will cap the price of energy bills for households and businesses over the next six months.
The prices of other goods should also rise less rapidly as supply problems faced by companies are starting to ease. And the slowing in households’ demand for goods and services will also lead to a slowing in price inflation.
The Bank’s Governor, Andrew Bailey acknowledged at the recent press conference that “the road ahead will be a tough one.” But he added that “the economy will recover. And inflation will fall.”
:: Frances Hill is the Bank of England's agent in Northern Ireland
