Business

Why I'm feeling more confident now about recovery since lockdown began

Many businesses like Ikea have already started trading again - and I was given hope last week about the re-opening of Belfast city centre
Many businesses like Ikea have already started trading again - and I was given hope last week about the re-opening of Belfast city centre Many businesses like Ikea have already started trading again - and I was given hope last week about the re-opening of Belfast city centre

TWENTY years ago this year, I started an Executive Masters in Business Administration (MBA) course at the Smurfit Graduate School of Business at University College Dublin. I was working full time so the ‘executive’ word in the title could have been less fancily termed ‘part-time’.

Classes ran from 2-9pm on a Friday and 9-1pm on a Saturday for two years. Back in 2000, the main road to Dublin still ran through places like Castlebellingham, Balbriggan and Dunleer (we always used to stop in The Grove in Dunleer for chicken in a basket and chips on the way back from Queen’s matches).

The Smurfit school is on its own beautiful campus in Blackrock in south Dublin, and getting there on a Friday was a nightmare. Still, I was the only northerner in the class and I felt like I was accessing something special so I was (and am) very glad I made the effort.

It’s hard to quantify what the MBA taught me and whether or not the expense of it was justified, but on balance, I definitely think it was. It certainly made me think about business more and it gave me decent insights into corporate finance, marketing and strategy that I still value and use today.

Probably the issue that recurred most often across nearly all of the modules was the value of people. A lot of the course used the Harvard Business School case study approach where we worked in small groups (if only we had Zoom or Teams then) and applied ourselves to writing our own case study-based solutions to challenges within Irish companies.

Once again, in so many scenarios, the reaction of the manager or chief executive officer; the training or integration of the team, the insights deployed by experts or the relationships built with customers, suppliers, partners and influencers made the decisive impact on results.

Twenty years later, in the middle of a global pandemic, and now that so many of us are working remotely and the entire business community is under such pressure, the value of people and relationships is more clear than ever.

Especially when I read a report last week from McKinsey & Company, one of the star companies talked about in business schools around the world. McKinsey’s report estimated that UK output (as measured by GDP) is down roughly 30 percent from February levels.

Overall McKinsey’s midpoint scenario (half way between the worst and the best), sees UK GDP in 2020 shrinking by 9 per cent. Those numbers have significant implications for employment.

It means around 7.6 million jobs are at risk. And unfortunately, those risks are highly skewed: people and places with the lowest incomes are the most vulnerable to job loss.

On the McKinsey map, this entire region was all dark blue – 28 per cent job losses - the worst-case scenario partly, I suspect, because according to McKinsey, 50 per cent of all the jobs at risk are in occupations earning less than £10 per hour.

Having said that (being the PR man, I’m always looking for green shoots), I was given hope on a large Zoom call last Thursday about the re-opening of Belfast city centre.

Led very ably by Nigel Grimshaw of Belfast City Council, every major stakeholder in the city centre was represented at the meeting. There were quite a few things that I liked, the first was the relationships.

The people in the senior positions around the city are both capable and respectful. Of course, they may have competing priorities at times but there is a constructive and respectful approach and that was clear in the meeting. Those relationships have massive value and will be critical in the coming months.

The second piece I liked was the planning for reopening and how to build confidence again. Another City Council senior staff member, Lisa Caldwell, led the group through a phased approach to building confidence and also presented some strong campaign ideas.

It’s early days, but I feel more confident this week about recovery than I have at any other time since lockdown began. We as a company were also able to take two of our staff back out of furlough which, while that is very small in most people’s eyes, it felt very significant and positive to me.

Even 20 years later, maybe all that focus on people in the MBA had an influence on that, I don’t know, but it felt good.

And at last, for when I return to work in the city centre, I’ve also ordered a bike to get me there. Those interminable car trips to Dublin will be banished from my memory as I pedal along the Lagan, petrol- and care-free. Of course, the sun will always be shining too, right?

Paul McErlean (paul@mcepublicrelations.com) is managing director and founder of MCE Public Relations.