ROBOTS will replace seven per cent of jobs in Northern Ireland while more than half of all remaining roles are at risk of major automation, a report as claimed.
In its latest quarterly review, the Nevin Economic Research Institute (NERI) focussed on recent rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and other technologies and how they have led to widespread concern about the potential for job loss.
And it estimates that around 7 per cent or close to 60,000 jobs are at high risk of job loss from automation technologies.
In addition, it forecasts that further 58 per cent of jobs are at risk of substantial change - which NERI claims is a more realistic appraisal of the risk of job loss than that suggested by other studies.
But the report says that while automation will bring about job losses, it is also likely to lead to job creation, and therefore technological unemployment is unlikely.
In many instances, however, the new jobs created will not be comparable to those that were lost, the report says.
The experience over the last two decades has shown that there has been growth in highly-skilled occupations such as engineers and computer scientists but also growth in non-routine service occupations such as in caring and leisure.
This polarisation has led to a similar division in job quality with highly skilled ‘good jobs’ enjoying better security, flexibility and earnings compared to the ‘bad jobs’ that dominate in the non-routine service sector. This is of concern because many of these ‘bad jobs’ are among the least likely to be displaced by automation.
NERI senior economist Paul MacFlynn said: “While there will be jobs losses from automation, there will also be job creation. How new jobs will compare with those that are lost should be the key concern for those worried about automation.”
Economist Dr Lisa Wilson added: “Automation will bring job loss, but not to the extent that some studies have argued. In reality many factors will temper the ability of machines to replace workers.”
