FOOTBALL transfer fees are predicted to surpass £100 million on a regular basis by 2025.
Multinational professional services giant PwC has said deals like the recent £198 million transfer of Brazilian international Neymar from Barcelona to Paris Saint Germain could soon be commonplace as the transfer market continues to inflate.
PwC's analysis of transfer activity amongst Europe’s top-20 clubs indicates the biggest transfers could consistently exceed £100m by the 2024/2025 season, based on the spending trends of the biggest clubs to date.
The current average of this season’s 20 largest transfer fees, excluding the record-breaking Neymar transfer, is £35m. However, amongst the top-20 clubs the overall average transfer fee is £15m.
PwC says the average fee for the largest 20 transfers is forecast to grow by 9 per cent a year to reach £65m by the 2024/25 season.
Philip Shepherd, partner in PwC’s sports and leisure practice, said £100 million transfers will become prevalent as spending continues to follow the escalating growth of club revenues.
He added that the size of the transfer fee paid for Neymar was not expected.
“Historically the range for the world record transfer has been between 2.5 to three times the average of the next 20 largest fees. On this basis, we would not have expected to see a record transfer fee at the level of the reported fee for Neymar for around another five to seven years."
Jonathan Blausten, senior consultant in PwC’s sports and leisure practice, added:
“In the past three to four season’s revenues have grown consistently at 3 per cent per annum faster than average transfer fees, driven primarily by the fast-growing media rights deals and large sponsorship deals reflecting the continuing globalisation of European football.
“This suggests many clubs aren’t fully flexing their muscles in the transfer market yet and we would not be surprised to see a step change in fees at the top of the market.”
