Rugby

Warren Gatland's boys won't take defeat Lion down but All Blacks will be too classy in the end

British and Irish Lions head coach Warren Gatland has built a strong a resolute team but the star quality of New Zealand should be too much for them Picture: PA
British and Irish Lions head coach Warren Gatland has built a strong a resolute team but the star quality of New Zealand should be too much for them Picture: PA British and Irish Lions head coach Warren Gatland has built a strong a resolute team but the star quality of New Zealand should be too much for them Picture: PA

DURING a nine-day excursion to Poland to watch the European Championships in 2012, a tired, bedraggled and exceptionally hungover friend of mine threw himself to the floor on a packed train in an attempt to get some sleep.

When he was urged to get up for fear of being stamped on, his reply left the rest of us in no doubt that he wasn’t for budging.

“I just love lying down,” came one of the most pathetic yet understandable statements of all time.

In the five years since, there have been many occasions when I’ve intended to get up early and get a few things done, only for those immortal words to creep into my mind, leading to the alarm clock being turned off.

It really has to be something special to get me out of my bed before I’m ready, and yet over the last few weeks on a number of occasions I’ve abided by the alarm clock and got up at an ungodly hour.

The reason for my early rising has been the Lions tour to New Zealand, which after a slow start is coming to the boil nicely.

And with the preliminary exercises of warm-up games out of the way, the real business starts on Saturday morning when the first Test takes place in Auckland.

The whole Lions exercise isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, with it becoming increasingly commercial in the professional era, yet I lap it up, with the challenge of blending the best of four national teams into a cohesive unit in a short space of time one of the biggest challenges in sport.

And the challenge is even bigger when the tour is to New Zealand, the most rugby-mad country on the planet.

The Lions only get to visit the ‘Land of the Long White Cloud’ once every 12 years, so they are met by a fired up nation and even more fired up players and coaches.

There has been much gloating and goading in recent days by All Blacks coach Steve Hansen, who has gleefully picked apart every failing from the tourists, especially after the midweek side lost games to the Blues and the Highlanders.

It definitely hasn’t been plain-sailing for Warren Gatland and his massive touring party, although the signs over the last 10 days or so are that his very particular game-plan is starting to filter through to his squad.

The last two Saturdays have seen impressive wins over New Zealand’s top club side in the Crusaders and also the Maori All Blacks, with only one try conceded in those two outings, and that came as a result of a George North error.

The majority of the players who pulled on the red jersey for those games will do so again for the first Test at Eden Park, with Munster’s Peter O’Mahony hotly-tipped to captain the side as tour skipper Sam Warburton is struggling for full fitness and form.

Gatland is highly likely to stick with those hard-nosed players who delivered the two best wins of the trip so far, and the three Test series promises to be an intriguing clash of styles.

The Lions will try to keep things tight, to play a structured game and rely on functioning set-pieces and the tactical kicking of scrum-half Conor Murray.

In contrast, New Zealand will want to be expansive, to create the organised chaos that allows their superstar backs to strut their stuff.

And those superstars – the likes of Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams (right), Julian Savea and Ben Smith – will probably make the difference this weekend and over the three games.

The All Blacks are huge favourites to win the series, at a best-priced 1/5 with Boylesports, while they are 1/4 with Stan James to win the first Test.

The perception is that they are at their most vulnerable in the opening game of a series, yet Hansen moved to negate that by playing Samoa last Friday and his side ran out 78-0 winners.

It is a huge ask of the Lions to even win one of the matches, let alone the series. They’ve only won one series in New Zealand, way back in 1971, and since then they’ve won two Tests out of 14.

The last trip in 2005 was a disaster, with the All Blacks winning all three games with plenty to spare, and while I expect it to be closer this time, the tourists have to turn over history as well as fierce opposition.

The Lions are 4/1 generally to win on Saturday, and can be backed to 11/2 with Paddy Power to take the series.

I can’t really recommend a punt on either, especially as two of the Tests are at Eden Park, where the All Blacks haven’t lost since 1994.

They haven’t had it tough there too many times either, although the Lions can give them a good game.

The home side are 10-point favourites in the handicap betting, but I think the value could come in backing them to win by between one and 12 points and 9/5 with Ladbrokes.

The first game should be the tightest, and the fact I think New Zealand will win it means the series should finish 3-0 in their favour.

That outcome can be backed at 4/6 with Sky Bet, which actually offers a bit of value and should be of interest to punters with a bit of cash to spare.

Those All Black backs won’t be kept quiet for an entire 80 minutes, so the Lions need to find more tries to even compete, and there is a chance that North, the 5/1 favourite to be the top tryscorer for the tourists, may miss out on a place due to his faltering form.

Elliott Daly is putting pressure on the Welsh winger and at the very least will be on the bench on Saturday so he might be worth a small bet at 25/1 (Paddy Power) to be top Lions tryscorer as he loves to come off the wing and get involved in things.

The other man to watch in this market is number eight Taulupe Faletau (14/1, Bet365), who could benefit from any desire to keep it tight and roll over from the back of a couple of mauls.

The Lions are in for a tough couple of weeks, although I don’t see them just lying down.

New Zealand to win Lions Test series 3-0, 4/6 (Sky Bet)

New Zealand to win first Test by 1-12 points, 9/5 (Ladbrokes)

Taulupe Faletau, top Lions tryscorer, e/w, 14/1 (Bet365)

Elliott Daly, top Lions tryscorer, e/w, 25/1 (Paddy Power)

YET another first-time Major winner was crowned at Erin Hills on Sunday when Brooks Koepka combined power and precision to win the US Open in a renewal that was most unlike a US Open.

Wet conditions turned what was supposed to be a fast and fiery course into a slog where the big hitters held even more of an advantage than had been expected.

Koepka got the job done in very impressive style, however, to suggest he will be a factor at the top level for years to come.

He wasn’t the first-time winner we wanted but at least top tip Rickie Fowler was placed at 22/1, while Shane Lowry didn’t have to do too much to make good on his selection as top Irishman at 4/1.

The Offaly man was the only one of the quartet from these shores to make the cut, with Rory McIlroy not surprisingly paying the price for his inactivity with a rib injury of late.

The Holywood man is playing catch-up on his main rivals, most of whom have won at least once this term, and he has altered his schedule to get as much competitive action under his belt ahead of a busy summer.

He makes his debut in this week’s PGA Tour offering, the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut, where he is joined by Jordan Spieth and Jason Day, both of whom struggled in Wisconsin.

Spieth is also teeing it up in this one for the first time but has been marked up as the favourite by some firms, probably because he at least played all four days at Erin Hills.

McIlroy is the jolly in places as well at no bigger than 10/1, but this short par 70 might not be completely to his liking.

I’d rather have Justin Thomas at 16/1 with Ladbrokes as he seeks to get over his own Erin Hills disappointment.

A closing 75 saw Thomas (pictured) slip to ninth after his Saturday 63 put him in the final fourball for the last round.

Yet Thomas is a feisty character who will be determined to bounce back and the fact remains that he recorded a top 10 in a Major.

He was fourth on his previous start at The Memorial, so his form is good, while he was joint-third in this event a year ago, when he closed with a 62.

Thomas looks the man to beat at 16/1, while I’d also suggest a punt on Daniel Berger (35/1, Bet365) and Charley Hoffman (40/1 generally).

Berger missed the cut at the US Open on a course that didn’t play to his strengths but he did win the FedEx St Jude Classic on his previous outing and was fifth in this one last year after leading going into the final day.

I can see him going well, as is the case with Hoffman, who recorded a best US Open finish of eighth on Sunday.

He was a fairways and greens machine in Wisconsin and will plot his way round River Highlands to good effect, as he did when second in 2012 and seventh the following year.

He looks a very good each-way bet at the 40s on offer.

Justin Thomas, Travelers Championship, e/w, 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

Daniel Berger, Travelers Championship, e/w, 35/1 (Bet365)

Charley Hoffman, Travelers Championship, e/w, 40/1 (General)