Rugby

Safe selection hands advantage to Wales

Joe Schmidt has handed CJ Stander a debut for tomorrow's Six Nations opener against Wales. Picture by Paul Harding/PA
Joe Schmidt has handed CJ Stander a debut for tomorrow's Six Nations opener against Wales. Picture by Paul Harding/PA Joe Schmidt has handed CJ Stander a debut for tomorrow's Six Nations opener against Wales. Picture by Paul Harding/PA

RBS Six Nations: Ireland v Wales (tomorrow, 3pm, Aviva Stadium, live on ITV1 and RTÉ2)

A NEW dawn, a first nod towards 2019? Or simply a four-month break and return to what we know?

As expected, Joe Schmidt has plumped for the latter.

Opportunity even knocked on change’s door with injury to Rob Kearney, who is hamstrung along with flanker Sean O’Brien, whose absence does hand a debut to South African-born CJ Stander.

But the Ireland head coach turned it away.

The exciting, bold move would have been to put Payne to full-back, where he has shone for Ulster since his return from the broken foot that ended his World Cup.


That would have opened up a spot in the centre for the ram-raiding Stuart McCloskey.

Schmidt gave an indication that he would go with the safe options when he questioned last week whether Garry Ringrose – who was brought into the squad this week – was physically ready for international rugby.

“Is putting him in against 110kg of hurtling Jamie Roberts or 104kg of footwork and fend that Jonathan Davies can deliver (the best thing for him)?” queried Schmidt.


McCloskey’s 111kg would at least give the Welsh midfield duo some of their own medicine.

Payne was one of the outstanding figures in green last year in Cardiff, and was always guaranteed his place in the team.

It was simply a matter of where. And the partnership that he struck up with Henshaw last year was ultimately why Schmidt has made the choice he has.

“We looked hard at the Stuart McCloskey – Luke Marshall combination as a second [option]… but the two guys did well against Wales last year. Jared made a lot of metres and Robbie was one of our go-to players,” he said yesterday.

There were no great surprises when the squad was announced early afternoon at Carton House yesterday, barring perhaps the inclusion of Connacht youngster Kieran Marmion as the replacement scrum-half ahead of Eoin Reddan.

The fact that Paddy Jackson was returned to the Ulster camp to take his place on the bench for last night’s clash with Newport Gwent Dragons gave an early indication of how Schmidt’s selection would go.

But given Jonathan Sexton’s recent injury record, and the fact that Wales are certain to target his channel with their legion of powerful ball-carriers, the decision not to carry the in-form Ulster man could backfire.

The lack of change in personnel points towards a lack of change in the way Ireland will play the game. That too would be no real surprise.

France and England are both promising something different. Scotland have already begun to make good on that under Vern Cotter.

Wales have been hinting that they will make changes, though Ireland assistant coach Simon Easterby wasn’t buying it when he saw their line-up on Wednesday.

“They’ve picked a fairly consistent team from the World Cup. They can change a few things but personnel-wise it’s fairly consistent so they’re not going to be able to change too much in a short space of time,” he said.

Ireland, though, are likely to continue as they were. That has been good enough to win back-to-back Six Nations titles, but few are giving them a prayer of making it three-in-a-row for the first time in history.

When the Welsh came to Dublin two years ago, Sexton’s excellent kicking kept them penned in.

Ireland will likely look to that safety again tomorrow, and the Leinster man will have to be on his game to avoid giving a powerful Welsh back division the opportunity to run at them.

Warren Gatland admitted during the week that he has chosen Rob Evans at prop over record cap-holder Gethin Jenkins off the back of Jerome Garcés interpretation of the scrum, and how he penalised Jenkins against England last year.

The former Ireland boss described the French referee as being in “the top two in the world” earlier this week.

Ireland have their own concerns over his style, with his failure to reward them when they had an edge early on against Argentina rankling with them.

Garcés will almost certainly have a huge bearing on the game. And the Welsh, with all the power and experience that their pack possesses, will be hoping to garner big rewards from the scrum.

Gatland choosing Justin Tipuric over Dan Lydiate on the openside was also something of a surprise.

It maybe ought not to have been though, given his huge display at the breakdown against Peter O’Mahony last year.

The absence of O’Mahony, and now Sean O’Brien, from that area could be significant, although debutant Stander’s work for Munster in that regard goes some way towards alleviating the worry.

Both sides have backlines capable of cutting loose, but it’s more likely to be the forwards’ battle that defines this Six Nations opener.

There has been plenty of suggestion that Wales will bully Ireland in that regard, but the Irish pack weighs in with a 14kg advantage (922kg to 908kg) overall.

Jack McGrath and Nathan White have the physical advantage against Rob Evans and Samson Lee, while the presence of CJ Stander in the back row evens things up there.

Wales won last year’s meeting with a deficiency in possession and territory. Their defence was immense. Ireland made 415 metres and yet scored just 16 points, and just one try.

Gatland has produced more than one tactical masterclass against Ireland, not least the 2011 World Cup clash. You feel that Ireland’s selection makes it easier for him to replicate that.

The visitors to prevail.

Ireland: S Zebo; A Trimble, J Payne, R Henshaw, K Earls; J Sexton, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best, N White; D Toner, M McCarthy; CJ Stander, T O’Donnell, J Heaslip

Replacements: S Cronin, J Cronin, T Furlong, D Ryan, R Ruddock, K Marmion, I Madigan, D Kearney

Wales: G Anscombe; G North, J Davies, J Roberts, T James; D Biggar, G Davies; R Evans, S Baldwin, S Lee; L Charteris, AW Jones; S Warburton, J Tipuric, T Faletau

Replacements: K Owens, G Jenkins, T Francis, B Davies, D Lydiate, L Williams, R Priestland, A Cuthbert