Sport

Danny Hughes: Championship knockout looms - strange times indeed

Donegal and Tyrone players at the final whistle of the Allianz Division One game at Ballybofey on October 18 2020. Picture by Margaret McLaughlin
Donegal and Tyrone players at the final whistle of the Allianz Division One game at Ballybofey on October 18 2020. Picture by Margaret McLaughlin Donegal and Tyrone players at the final whistle of the Allianz Division One game at Ballybofey on October 18 2020. Picture by Margaret McLaughlin

First things first.

My winners this weekend are Monaghan, Armagh and Donegal.

Would I be surprised if Cavan, Derry or Tyrone came through? Probably not.

In the absence of spectators, home advantage is gone so it will come down to the best 15 players on the day, backed up by a strong squad who can add to things from the bench.

Interestingly, with the National League just finished last weekend, we are heading into a very unique and bizarre Championship – one like no other before or hopefully one we are never likely to see again.

Interestingly, I see the Dubs as being vulnerable this year for a few reasons.

Dessie Farrell is in his first year so there will be a bit of adjusting from both the players and management perspective (even Jim Gavin needed a season).

‘The Hill’ has always been a source of inspiration for Dublin and you got the impression that the team of the last decade thrived on the bigger occasion especially when questions were being asked of them.

The greater the pressure, the greater the performance.

An empty Croke Park is as good as taking the Dubs out of headquarters altogether – it levels the playing field.

From an Ulster perspective, Tyrone and Donegal are the only serious challengers to Dublin or indeed Kerry.

I actually fancy Kerry for the Championship. I just think they have that great mix at the minute in defence, midfield and attack.

Of course they also have David Clifford and they will hope that the shortness of the season will mitigate any chances of injury over a longer season.

But back to the Ulster Championship, one of the ‘big two’ will be out come Sunday evening.

Tyrone had a fantastic win in Mayo, racking up a big score-line.

Yes, they conceded too, but there are signs that Tyrone can build a strong forward line around Conor McKenna and Darragh Canavan who combined to score one of the goals of the year.

I was delighted for Darragh Canavan (son of Peter or nephew of Pascal if you prefer) to use that opportunity to stake a claim for starting this weekend – particularly delighted when Canavan received ‘that’ pass from McKenna, he opted to not take a mark and go for goal instead.

That will be a big challenge for us spectators – managing our frustrations.

My fear in the long-term is forwards opting for the ‘safe’ score (point) and eventually goals such as Canavan’s will be a rarity in the future.

I have a major issue with the forward mark and hopefully this rule will be binned.

Tyrone’s win in Castlebar, especially considering Mayo humiliating Galway the week before, was a real test of character.

Especially so, given that the Red Hands were convincingly beaten by Donegal a few weeks ago.

Tyrone don’t lack character, you don’t achieve their levels of consistency in these last number of years by accident.

Yet, they do struggle against Donegal, or should I say, Michael Murphy’s Donegal.

He is so instrumental to everything they do as a team.

His influence will dictate the outcome of the game.

This is not dissimilar to Conor McManus’s influence on Monaghan.

His 1-8 against Meath meant the Farney men retained Division One status.

Job done for Banty and the opening Ulster Championship match against Cavan presents a different test now.

It is hard to see them not coming through against Cavan.

Monaghan would need to go into complete meltdown if Cavan are to win this game.

Mickey Graham’s players have just suffered a relegation and are missing a number of key men who have opted not to re-join the panel this season, even prior to Covid, their confidence is bound to be brittle.

I have heard it say that National League has no bearing on Championship – but I have never bought into that.

Form, either individually or team, is not something you can turn on or off.

And given how condensed this season has been in the last few weeks, the one thing you won’t get in this year's Championship is a significant break between games to work on ironing out problems, nor will you get momentum via a backdoor.

Cavan fall into the latter category – but where their's life, there’s hope.

On any given day, anyone can be beaten, but it will take Cavan to get a good start, and neutralise Conor McManus for 70 minutes, if they are to pull off a real surprise.

Rationally, I just don’t see it.

Armagh against Derry should be very tight and interestingly, like Kieran McGeeney, I feel Derry could cause the Orchard Men real problems.

Armagh secured promotion and playing in Division One next year will really bring them on.

If you want to win silverware now, you need to be playing in the top flight - period.

So big picture, Armagh are still developing.

Derry have been boosted by the return of Conor Glass from Aussie Rules, so it will be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out.

To be honest, when you are languishing in Division Three, coverage can be lacking in the best of times.

So Derry will have that element of ‘surprise’ in this fixture and the astute Rory Gallagher will be well-organised and prepared for whatever Armagh throw at them.

Gallagher tends to set a team up with ‘Plan A’- pulling lads behind the ball and hitting on the counter-attack.

When Plan A fails, he reverts to Plan B- which is the exact same plan as Plan A.

Now I jest, but if it’s effective and you ultimately win games, do fans care?

For Armagh, the O’Neill brothers, Rian and Oisin, were vital in pulling Armagh away from Clare last weekend as was Rory Grugan, so they will have to be at their best to ensure to win this fixture.

This is a big weekend for many teams and management teams alike, a make or break, a throwback to another time, when its win or bust.

For me, form and momentum are important, not critical, but important.

A home venue is no longer a guarantee of an extra point or two for the hosts.

This year, it is very much a case of the playing field being levelled to an extent in so many indirect ways.

However, there is no getting around the fact that the Ulster and All-Ireland Championship is in the hands of a very few legitimate contenders, perhaps six teams, maximum.

Bigger picture, whatever the outcome of this weekend, I can’t see any other side staking a claim.

But one of those big Ulster sides will exit this weekend after one game.

Strange times indeed.