THE biggest challenge for Mayo in Sunday’s All-Ireland final is having the confidence required to go that final step that has eluded them on so many occasions.
I’ve always been a believer that experiencing defeat can be a good thing in the long run.
However, in Mayo’s case, consistent failures when the ultimate goal is so close must have a hugely negative impact. Confidence and belief comes easily when you have won on the most important days.
Unlike Dublin, Mayo do not have those experiences to draw upon. This year they also face the problem that their performance levels to date have been below what they would expect of themselves.
Mayo have been one of the least impressive teams to reach an All-Ireland final that I can remember. They have only played well for short periods of games to date this year and another inconsistent display will end in defeat against a team of the calibre of Dublin.
I expected Mayo to up their game since getting to Croke Park, but they have yet to get to the performance level of the last four years. Against Westmeath in the Qualifiers they let a huge lead almost slip away in the second half, Tyrone’s wastefulness let them off the hook and they were outplayed by Tipperary in the opening 25 minutes of the semi-final.
Having said all that, they are now just 70 minutes away from ending their long wait to take the Sam Maguire back to Mayo. The bookies are rarely wrong and they have Dublin as red-hot favourites.
I’ve been trying to think of ways that Mayo can win this match and the major doubt I have is around those performances to date this year. However, there are reasons to think they can cause an upset. Only last year they took Dublin to a replay and looked like winning that replay for long spells. Pretty much all of the same players are available to Mayo on Sunday.
Likewise, Kerry showed up some weaknesses in the Dublin team in this year’s semi-final. When they pressured Dublin high up the pitch, all of a sudden they started to force them into mistakes. Kerry were unable to sustain the pressure for long enough.
I believe Mayo are a more athletic team than Kerry and should be able to play at a high intensity for longer periods of the game.
I would be shocked to see Barry Moran play as a sweeper this weekend. Dublin rarely kick high ball inside so there is no need for help under the high ball. Against Dublin you need mobility in defence in order to cope with their movement inside and stopping the runners coming from deep.
The problem every team playing Dublin face is that you need to push up on them to stop their ball carriers, but you also need spare men to pick up the runners and cover the space in front of their full-forward line.
The decisive factor in this game could well prove to be the battle between the half-back and half--forward lines. Dublin’s dominance in this area usually gives them a platform to steamroll over the top of teams.
Against Kerry, their half-forward line didn’t have its usual positive impact which gave the Kingdom a chance of victory. Paul Flynn hasn’t been playing particularly well over the last two years and he really struggled to make an impact in the semi-final.
Likewise, Ciaran Kilkenny had a poor outing having been one of Dublin’s best players all season. Mayo’s greatest strength is their half-back line of Keegan, Boyle and Durcan who are excellent man-markers and also provide the launch pad for attacks.
The battle between Lee Keegan and Diarmuid Connolly will be one to watch considering the history between the players. When Dublin were under pressure against Kerry it was their halfback line that came to the fore.
James McCarthy is likely to pick up Diarmuid O’Connor in what should be a great battle. Injury has slowed both players at stages during the year, but the rest before the final should have them both fully fit.
With Cian O’Sullivan dropping back to play as a spare man, Philly McMahon should pick up Aidan O’Shea regardless of whether he plays in the half-forward line or closer to goal.
In last year’s semi-final, Mayo’s biggest problem was the quality of ball they played inside. Too often they kicked aimlessly to Aidan O’Shea who was outnumbered in front of goal.
Mayo’s management team must decide where to play O’Shea. I expect to see him played inside for spells of the game, but feel McMahon could cause him problems attacking from a halfback position. If Dublin are able to dominate possession they will win the game.
Mayo have some excellent defenders and they are better organised under Stephen Rochford than they have been over the last few years. However, their defensive organisation is not at the level of a team like Donegal in 2014 when they beat Dublin.
For that reason alone, Mayo will need to put up a big score if they are to come out on top. That remains the major doubt about this Mayo team. Who can they rely upon to get scores from play? They will need at least two forwards to be contenders for man-of-the-match so the pressure is on the likes of Andy Moran and Cillian O’Connor to deliver on the big stage.
I think everyone would love to see Mayo win a long overdue All-Ireland and I will be cheering them on. They need a lot of things to go right on the day for them to win, but it’s hard to see past Dublin cementing their place among the great teams by winning back to back All-Irelands. Here’s hoping my prediction of Dublin by four is wrong.
