Golf

Rory McIlroy ready to 'rain' at Augusta

Rory McIlroy can take advantage of a wet course at Augusta to claim his first Masters title this weekend Picture: AP
Rory McIlroy can take advantage of a wet course at Augusta to claim his first Masters title this weekend Picture: AP Rory McIlroy can take advantage of a wet course at Augusta to claim his first Masters title this weekend Picture: AP

IT doesn’t get any better than this. The sun is shining, the long evenings are here and I’ve set aside the next five days to sit in front of the TV.

The Masters and Aintree. What’s not to like?

Yet, there is a drawback to this brilliant week of sporting action.

That being the lack of sleep in the days that precede it.

While I’ve long since stopped worrying about trying to work out the winner of the Grand National – the fact I had nine horses running for me one year between bets and sweepstakes and none even finished has something to do with that – I’ll never give up on Augusta.

So I’ve been lying awake at ridiculous hours recently running over all of the Masters considerations in my mind.

Dustin Johnson can’t win four events in-a-row, can he? But how do you ignore his form?

Surely Jordan Spieth’s course record makes him the man to beat? But can he get over the meltdown last year?

Has Phil Mickelson still got it? Can Jon Rahm win the Green Jacket at the first attempt?

Literally for weeks these things have been spinning round in my head. And throughout it all I’ve been adamant I wouldn’t be tipping Rory McIlroy.

And then the rain came at Augusta.

So here I am, tipping Rory McIlroy to win the Masters, claim his first Green Jacket and complete the career Grand Slam at the age of 27.

Don’t get me wrong, Johnson goes in this week as the man to beat and fully merits the favouritism at no bigger than 7/1 with Stan James.

He has won his last three events, two of them World Golf Championships ahead of the best fields assembled thus far in 2017.

He also has an improving Augusta record, tying for fourth last term and sharing sixth in 2015.

Spieth won two years ago and should have done so 12 months ago before he became the latest player to suffer an Amen Corner meltdown, handing the title to Danny Willett.

That said, his share of second means his three outings in this event have resulted in a win and two runner-up finishes.

Not too shabby, and at 17/2 he will have his fans yet again.

But while ‘DJ’ has been sweeping all before him, Spieth’s form has been stuttering, missing the cut last week at the Shell Houston Open on a course he loves.

If Johnson wins I’ll kick myself. He is clearly the best player in the world at the minute and can play Augusta superbly.

I had him marked down as clearly the likeliest champion, but I can’t get away from the fact it was pouring down in Georgia over the weekend with more heavy showers forecast for today.

That means the players will be going out on a very wet course tomorrow, probably a damp one on Friday, and one that will be drying but nowhere near its fearsome fastest over the weekend.

All of which suits McIlroy, who is never better than when a course is wet and he can attack pins.

Usually Augusta requires strategy, approach shots played to certain sections of the undulating greens, percentage play.

However, damp, receptive greens will allow the leading lights to attack, something McIlroy will be relishing.

Augusta is a long course, with the conditions making it longer, but it is all about approach play and a good short game.

It is the latter department where McIlroy has fallen down at times over the years, but with the putting surfaces not as fast as normal, that weakness can be negated, and alongside Johnson he is the best iron player around.

He also has a decent Masters form to fall back on since his meltdown in 2011, finishing eighth in 2014, fourth in 2015 and 10th last year.

On each of those occasions one bad round stopped him really competing, but he comes in mentally fresh after an injury lay-off, while his form since returning to action is good, with a fourth in his last strokeplay event, at Bay Hill, very encouraging given that he has struggled on that course in the past.

McIlroy will be fired up as he has had to watch Johnson, Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama shine this term, but he can return to the spotlight this week.

Paddy Power have him at 8/1 and pay eight places, which is ridiculously good value.

I can’t see him not being in the shake-up so there is an each-way profit to be had at the very least, while the fact that the course will be dampest on the first day makes him a great each-way bet at 14/1 to be first round leader, with Paddy Power paying seven places there.

If he is to win, McIroy will get off to a quick start on a course that doesn’t really let you play catch-up.

If you back that, you can count the profits tomorrow night and then sit back and enjoy the rest of the action as it unfolds.

Johnson, Spieth and McIlroy totally dominate the betting for the first Major of the year with every other player in the 94-man field available at 20/1 or bigger.

Jason Day is tucked in behind the ‘big three’ and would be huge value at his best but personal problems have hindered his build-up.

Fowler is worth thinking about, while I’m reluctantly leaving Mickelson off my shortlist on the basis that he hasn’t won since the Open in 2013.

Justin Rose is a potential sleeper at 28s, but I’ll next opt for Paul Casey, who is 45/1 with Boylesports.

The Englishman possibly hasn’t achieved as much as he should have, but he remains a very decent performer as his 40th birthday approaches and comes to Augusta in decent form, having won his group at the WGC Match Play last time out.

He hits the ball a long way and has got to grips with the Masters test, with his share of fourth last year tie for sixth in 2015 exactly mirroring Johnson’s results.

Casey is on the big side at 45s, and so is Bubba Watson at 50/1 with Bet Victor.

It should be noted that Augusta is a left-hander’s paradise, with Mike Weir, Mickelson (three times) and Bubba (twice) all claiming the Green Jacket since 2003.

Watson’s form has been poor, but he played well at the Match Play last time out, and he loves Augusta, where he can shape the ball the way he wants and hit it miles.

Two wins in the last five years can’t be ignored and he must be on the each-way list at 50/1.

Meanwhile, Marc Leishman is a very lively outsider at 60/1 with Paddy Power after his Bay Hill victory last month, where he held off a a fine field and a fast-finishing McIlroy.

The Aussie has only played in the Masters four times, missing the cut three times. But he was also fourth behind compatriot Adam Scott in 2013 and can be a factor once more.

Finally, Lee Westwood would have to fall over the line to win given his mental frailties, but at 100/1 with Stan James he has to be backed each-way.

He was joint-second behind Willett last year when in shocking form coming in, and was also runner-up in 2010, third in 2012, seventh in ’14 and eighth in 2013.

That is serious course form for a player who still has a great long game and will relish the wet conditions so the 100/1 is huge, while the 3/1 offered by Stan James about a top-20 finish offers a good safety net.

THE struggles of debutants at Augusta have long been documented, with no first-timer winning the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller did so in 1979.

Experience is seen as a key factor in this event, which is the only Major to return to the same veune year after year.

Having said that, the last two winners, Danny Willett and Jordan Spieth, claimed the Green Jacket at just their second attempt, as did Charl Schwartzel in 2011.

The calibre of rookie is rising every year, and very few will ever be as good as Jon Rahm (right), who has risen to number 14 in the world within his first year as a pro.

The Spaniard is seen by many as a live contender to buck that debutant trend this week, and he does definitely look to have the game to figure prominently at this Masters and in future renewals.

He can be backed for victory at 28/1 but that might just be asking a bit much and I’d prefer a bet on him at 5/2 (Boylesports) to be the top debutant.

The competition is stronger then ever in this market, with Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood Alex Noren and Thomas Pieters just some of the top-class players making their Augusta bow, but Rahm’s form is sensational and he’s destined for the very top of the game.

I actually expected him to be shorter than 5/2 and that price really should be availed of.

Another ‘special’ that catches the eye is Bernhard Langer at 7/4 to be top German.

This is a straight match with Martin Kaymer (4/9) and Langer has finished in front of his younger compatriot in each of the last four years.

Kaymer just can’t get to grips with the nuances of Augusta while double champion Langer was third going into the final round last term and finished eighth as recently as 2014.

He’s still winning regularly on the Champions Tour and will plot his way round again to good effect.

Elsewhere, Marc Leishman is a live outsider for overall glory and looks fine value at 7/2 to be top Australian ahead of an out-of-practice Jason Day and an out-of-form Adam Scott.

Finally, Bubba Watson is 7/1 to be the top former winner and while Jordan Spieth is a big danger, this has go be worth an each-way bet at least with Boylesports paying three places in the market.

Selections

Rory McIlroy, e/w, 8/1 (Paddy Power); first round leader, e/w 14/1 (Paddy Power)

Paul Casey, e/w, 45/1 (Boylesports)

Bubba Watson, e/w, 50/1 (Bet Victor); top former winner,

Marc Leishman, e/w, 60/1 (Paddy Power); top Australian, 4/1 (Ladbrokes))

Lee Westwood, e/w, 100/1 (Stan James)

Jon Rahm, top debutant, 5/2 (Boylesports)

Bernhard Langer, top German, 7/4 (Boylesports)