Football

Cahair O'Kane: The numbers behind Derry's renaissance

Picture: Margaret McLaughlin
Picture: Margaret McLaughlin Picture: Margaret McLaughlin

LET’S begin with the disclaimer: it’s Division Three football.

Things are a bit looser, a bit easier, a bit less physical, played at a slower pace than what Derry will run into in a few weeks’ time, regardless of how Saturday goes against Offaly.

Croke Park should suit the Oak Leafers on the basis of what we’ve seen so far.

There have been plenty of theories as to why their season has gone as well as it has so far.

The numbers back some of it up.

Pressing up on the opposition’s kickouts? Derry have won exactly a third of their opponents’ restarts (36 out of 108).

Every shot they take, no matter where it’s headed, you will hear Rory Gallagher barking long before the ball’s gone dead: “KICKOUT!”

The numbers are slightly skewed by the Fermanagh and Longford ties which accounted for 26 of those 36 mini-victories, but that probably lends an insight into why they won those games so handsomely.

What has impressed is Derry’s improvement across the four games when they have been able to turn the opposition over.

It took on average just over 40 seconds each time they worked a score on the counter-attack against Longford.

That was down 35 seconds against Fermanagh, then down to 30 seconds against Cavan, and finally just over 17 seconds in the semi-final win over Limerick.

They’ve become good at recognising the opportunity and pouncing on it.

Case in point: Gareth McKinless’ goal against Fermanagh. The Ernemen were working out through the hands when Paul Cassidy stepped in to make the interception 55 yards from goal.

Derry had no thought other than goal. Cassidy to Ethan Doherty to McKinless, who fired past Chris Snow. It took 13 seconds.

It was less than 40 seconds to work a brilliant goal later in that game for Shane McGuigan, with Ciaran McFaul picking a sumptuous pass in behind for Shane McGuigan, who finished with 2-5 that day.

He’s been shooting the lights out but is also close to the head of the table for assists, which includes frees won that he’s converted himself. Between scoring 2-26 and setting up 0-10, he’s a massive part of what Derry are doing.

If it’s a Slaughtneil fulcrum then it’s a Glen double-act doing much of the penetrating for him.

Quietly, some of the focus has been drawn away from Ciaran McFaul. His displays have gone slightly under the radar this year, but having been arguably his county’s best player in recent years, Offaly won’t want to take their eyes off him.

His passing range is comfortably the best in Derry at present, emphasised by the fact that he’s directly set up 2-8 so far.

The man to watch this year, and in coming seasons, is Ethan Doherty. Not long out of school, he jumped the queue his brothers Jack and Alex had to wait in and was thrown straight into the deep end against Armagh last year.

If you’re fond of a wager on goalscorers, Doherty is your man. The amount of goal chances he finds himself on the end of is remarkable. And he can finish too.

But there’s also a composure there. He’s been Derry’s top man for assists, laying on 1-11 for his team-mates. The pace at which he comes on to the ball and his timing of the run makes him a serious goalscoring threat.

Where Derry are really at their best is when they can strip the ball.

Cavan Oisin Kiernan with Conor Glass of Derry during the National Football League Div 3 match at Kingspan Breffni Park Cavan on Saturday 29th May 2021. Picture Margaret McLaughlin.
Cavan Oisin Kiernan with Conor Glass of Derry during the National Football League Div 3 match at Kingspan Breffni Park Cavan on Saturday 29th May 2021. Picture Margaret McLaughlin. Cavan Oisin Kiernan with Conor Glass of Derry during the National Football League Div 3 match at Kingspan Breffni Park Cavan on Saturday 29th May 2021. Picture Margaret McLaughlin.

That’s a trend of the top teams that hasn’t been evident for a generation in the Oak Leaf county, who had become a laborious, patient outfit in possession, without the forwards to win tight games.

Turnovers are by far Derry’s biggest source of scores, with 3-24 coming on the counter-attack. Add in effectively another 2-2 from shots dropped short by the opposition, and you have the raw data for 5-26 out of 6-67 (42 per cent).

And their shooting has been excellent. They’re working off a 70 per cent efficiency rate (73 scores from 109 shots). Those are big-league numbers, but it must emphasised they’re being achieved in little-league.

Let’s take a short break from numbers now, before all our heads melt.

What the numbers won’t tell you is a huge part of Derry’s fine early form has been getting the right men in the right positions.

Gareth McKinless’s impact has been well spoken of already, but it can’t be underestimated. The fact that he’s playing at number six and that he has pace in both Conor Doherty and Padraig Cassidy outside him gives the team that turbocharge on the counter-attack.

They’re playing a much faster brand of football and that’s a huge part of why they’re averaging 2-15 per game. Teams are paying the price for coughing up possession against them.

Benny Heron is playing the football of his inter-county career, doing a lot of the unselfish stuff.

And in Conor Glass, they have the man that allows them to do it all. Derry couldn’t push up on opposition kickouts as fearlessly if they didn’t have the former AFL man to compete in the air.

Only for injuries to Padraig Cassidy and Brendan Rogers, Rory Gallagher would almost certainly have named the same starting XV for four straight games. That hasn’t happened in Derry for a long time, possibly back to the 2008 team that should have won Ulster.

The pieces are falling into place.

There are plenty of lessons to learn and there could be a sore one before this summer’s out, but the foundations of what Derry are doing will stand to them if they can keep their eyes on the road ahead.