All-Ireland Senior Football Championship Qualifying round four: Cavan v Tyrone (tomorrow, Clones, 5pm, live on Sky Sports)
CAVAN hearts must have sank when news of the final Qualifier draw of this year came through.
With the possible exception of Mayo, Tyrone were the last team the Breffnimen needed to get over the disappointment of losing the Ulster final to Donegal a fortnight ago.
A less-demanding clash with a Laois or a Clare would have done nicely but Tyrone followed them out of the hat and so they’ll do battle at Clones tomorrow with a Super 8 spot for the winners and a ‘Thanks, see you next year’ slap on the back for the losers.
Mickey Graham’s team battled to the finish against Donegal and they salvaged some respectability by forcing late goals for Conor Madden and Stephen Murray which kept the deficit down to five points. But, in reality, they got a mauling and although the margin of defeat was respectable, the manner of it will have taken time to get over.
At least they’ve had a few days and Graham will have spent it breathing fresh life into his men who can go out this evening and give this everything because, having been written off outside their own county, they have nothing to lose.
The favourites tag doesn’t always sit well with Tyrone and this is far from a gimme for the Red Hands. They were well beaten by Donegal too – at the Ulster semi-final stage – after a twist to their attacking gameplan backfired and left them looking disorganised as Donegal cut through them.
Mickey Harte said: “We haven’t become a bad team because of one defeat” after that loss at Breffni Park and his players – stung by the storm of criticism they copped - have proved that point with impressive back-to-back wins that saw them rack up 4-37 in a convincing return to form.
Of course, very few counties deal with the Championship alsorans better than Tyrone. Their conditioning is superior, their ability on the ball is superior and their drive and determination are often superior. They made short work of Longford and Kildare (both away from home) to bring their Qualifier run to 10 wins on-the-trot over the past fortnight.
Armagh, in 2014, were the last team to beat them in ‘the backdoor’ so can Ulster opponents end their run today?
Cavan won the first eight meetings of these counties but have won just one of the last eight – a 0-11 to 0-10 Ulster quarter-final victory way back in 1983 – and, although there were draws in 2005 and 2016, Tyrone won both replays comprehensively.
Cavan are distant underdogs but they have capable players their ranks and Graham is a canny operator on the sideline.
Losing the Ulster decider was a body blow but there is no evidence to suggest that the disappointment of the defeat cannot be shaken off.
Over the past 10 seasons, Ulster final losers have recorded five fourth round wins – five in-a-row between 2012 (Down) and 2016 (Donegal) and five losses including the last two – Down (2017) and Fermanagh, who were well beaten by Kildare last year.
To make it six out of 11 Cavan need a brave new offensive gameplan. They unsuccessfully attempted to contain Donegal in the Ulster final and it seems highly unlikely that they will attempt to restrict Tyrone for 70 minutes by funnelling men behind the ball.
Their best chance in this game is to go for it from the throw-in and that means starting with Cian Mackey because there is very little point in holding the veteran Castlerahan playmaker in reserve for the second half if this game, like the Ulster final, is all but over at half-time.
Dara McVeety is a proven attacking threat and Graham should also utilise the pace of Stephen Murray by attacking from the start and looking to throw Tyrone onto the backfoot and get their noses in front. If they can establish and early lead – like they did against Monaghan (and they were also underdogs in that game) in the Ulster quarter-final – they will have some control of the match and could frustrate Tyrone and could force them into mistakes.
At least by having a go Cavan will give themselves a chance because only death by a thousand cuts awaits if they sit back. Tyrone need to be Tyrone to win this game, they need to work hard, defend in numbers, break at speed and they have the prolific Cathal McShane up front to lead the line with Peter Harte (0-16 from the last two games) in support and playing out of his skin.
Since the loss to Donegal, Tyrone manager Harte has reverted to his tried and tested approach and it has paid off handsomely. Those tactics may not work against a Dublin side so adept at picking their way through a massed defence, but the Red Hands have to book a game against the Dubs first and Harte has cut his cloth to suit against Longford and Kildare.
He’ll do the same tomorrow with McShane soldiering on up front and the rest working hard up and down the pitch to smother the Cavan forwards, break them down and hit them hard on the counter.
At this stage of the year, with the glitz and glamour of the Super 8s almost within touching distance, winning is all that matters.
It might not be pretty this evening and you’d expect Cavan to fight tooth and nail but Tyrone should pull away in the last 15 minutes to win this game by three points at least.
