Form, they say, goes out the window when it comes to a derby fixture.
Monaghan maestro Malachy O’Rourke was quoted as saying this week.
For his part, Mickey Graham is hoping that that is the only thing his opposite number is proven to have gotten right once the final whistle is sounded this evening at Kingspan Breffni.
Cavan are on offer at 2/1 to beat the ‘oul enemy and advance to the Ulster SFC semis and while extrapolation is an inexact science most of the stats clearly suggest another Monaghan victory is on the way.
Monaghan have beaten Cavan in their last three Ulster SFC clashes (2013, 2015, 2017) and, in addition, won the NFL Division One meeting of the two sides last March.
Cavan boss Mickey Graham understands where the bookies are coming from..
“It’s unusual that you’re going out onto your own patch as outsiders but this time around it’s a case of rightly so,” Graham declared.
“The expectation levels maybe have been too high (over the years).
“We haven’t the results to back it up.
“People in Cavan have been talking about winning Ulster championships for the past 22 years but we have only won three Championship games in 10 years whereas Monaghan have won Ulster titles and played in All-Ireland semi-finals so they are rightly favourites.
“The only good thing going into this game is we have nothing to lose.
“If Monaghan win the game, nobody will bat an eyelid.
“If we win the game, then maybe people will say we had to win against them in the Championship sometime”
Still, the average winning margin for Monaghan in the last three Championship meetings has been just 1.33 points so nothing more than the width of a sheet of cooking foil can reasonably be expected to separate the sides this evening.
Indeed, only twice in the last 10 Championship clashes, going back to 1987, has more than three points separated the sides at the death – and one of those, in 1993, went to a replay.
As such, the record books point to another ding-dong, cliff-hanger. In such a scenario, a late winning point or a goal in the dregs of the game might well decider matters.
However, there are some pundits who believe that the outcome of this evening’s quarter-final meeting could come down to matters cerebral rather than physical.
In that latter regard, the belief which ordains that, all things being equal, the meeting of two fairly well-matched neighbours is invariably decided by which team wants the victory the most has been busy doing the rounds in both counties this week.
Whatever about the analogy between hunger and work-rate, Graham refuses to countenance the notion that his side won’t match Monaghan’s work rate or their hunger.
“I don’t believe in the excuse that you were out-worked or the hungrier team won – there’s no excuse for that and you don’t need talent for that,'' he said.
“There is one thing that we will be drilling in. We will not be out-worked.
“Cavan people are starting to come back again (to games) and no better game than this Saturday to get people out.
“Our supporters will see that we're as hungry as a county should be having not tasted success in 22 years. It’s a real prime time game.
“It’s a local derby. We should be the hungrier team.”
