Allianz National Football League Division One: Mayo v Monaghan (tomorrow, 2pm, Castlebar)
THERE are permutations swirling around that could yet save or relegate Monaghan, yet the Farneymen make the trip out west knowing the only result that will definitely secure their survival in Castlebar tomorrow is a win.
A draw might do, provided fellow strugglers Roscommon don’t beat Kerry. Even defeat doesn’t necessarily mean the drop for the Farneymen, provided the Rossies also go down to the Kingdom.
As long as Monaghan at least match Roscommon’s result, they are safe. However, such talk is sure to have been buried in Cloghan in the wake of last weekend’s crucial derby win over Cavan.
Malachy O’Rourke won’t want to spend the dying minutes of tomorrow afternoon’s game getting updates from Hyde Park; survival is in Monaghan’s hands, and that is where he will want it to stay.
However, considering how close recent meetings between these two counties have been, it appears unlikely he won’t end up with a sweat coming down the straight.
Over the past three years, neither has managed to make home advantage pay – a trend O’Rourke will hope continues today. Last year Mayo left Clones with a one-point win, in 2017 Monaghan had two to spare in Castlebar and back in 2016 it was Mayo who prevailed by two in St Tiernach’s Park.
Against Cavan last week, Monaghan had to get the job done. They did just that but weren’t overly impressive in doing so.
In the first half the Farneymen looked nervous at times. After going behind to Cian Mackey’s early goal, they proceeded to kick away possession or run into traffic time and again.
Such haste was uncharacteristic of a side that is usually so patient and meticulous when it comes to working opportunities.
However, Cavan’s lack of a scoring threat meant they were unable to capitalise on such sloppiness, with Monaghan’s greater quality – and their strength from the bench – telling after the break.
They started that game with Fintan Kelly, Ryan McAnespie and Jack McCarron on the bench, and all three made an impact when brought on.
McCarron came on for Micheal Bannigan and was able to find space where the Aughnamullan man couldn’t, while McAnespie supplied the inch perfect pass for the first of two huge Conor McManus points in the second half.
Conor McCarthy showed flashes of what he is capable of, often driving at the heart of the Cavan defence and spreading panic. However, he also took the ball into traffic too many times, or selected the wrong option.
Monaghan won’t have as much room for error at MacHale Park.
The fact Mayo also have something to play for hasn’t particularly helped the Farney cause. Going into last weekend’s game against table-toppers Kerry, James Horan’s men were – like Monaghan – looking over their shoulders rather than up.
That unexpected victory in Tralee has now left them well placed for a spot in next Sunday’s League final, possibly against the Kingdom once more.
Still, it is difficult to know exactly what to expect from them tomorrow. For every game throughout this campaign, Horan has made a host of changes. He was roundly criticised for making six switches from the previous week’s win over Cavan when they took on, and were well beaten by, Dublin.
Yet, considering just how much tinkering has been done, some of the results achieved have been incredible. They were superb in downing Tyrone at Healy in February, beat Cavan with greater ease than anybody else has managed and - despite being without Lee Keegan and Andy Moran - became the first team to defeat Kerry in the Peter Keane era.
They did struggle to get through a packed Kingdom defence at times, especially in the first half, and Monaghan will have to be as dogged and well organised as they were in the second half against Cavan.
The Farney’s shot selection and accuracy will need to improve considerably as – perhaps understandably – they still look a side short on confidence.
A draw would not be a huge surprise tomorrow, given how well-matched these sides are, and could just end up suiting both.
