ARMAGH’S progress this year in spite of their turnover of players across the winter has impressed Aaron Kernan, but he feels their time in the Ulster SFC might not come for a while yet.
The Orchard haven’t been in a provincial final since their great run of seven titles in ten years came to an end in 2008, and haven’t won a match in the competition since Kieran McGeeney took charge in 2015.
The bookmakers have them priced as fifth favourites and with the winners of Tyrone v Monaghan on their side of the draw, theirs is a difficult path should they come past Fermanagh on May 19.
The former Young Footballer of the Year feels that another last eight place is attainable but has warned the county’s supporters to be patient.
“With my heart you’d love to see them winning Ulster but if I’m being completely realistic, I think we’re a few years off. I think we’d compete with Monaghan or Tyrone, we’re much better than what we showed against Tyrone last year.
“But competing and beating are two different things. What some Armagh supporters need to do is show a wee bit of patience.
“Some maybe lost the run of themselves a wee bit last year with a decent Division Three campaign and a run in the qualifiers, thinking you can go and beat a top four or five team come championship. There’s a huge step-up from Three to Two, and then Two to One. League form generally doesn’t lie. You’ll get your odd upset like Down over Monaghan last year. Armagh have shown they have the ability to beat Fermanagh. I think it’ll be a much more cagey and tactical affair in the first round of the championship but they’re capable of coming out of Brewster Park with a win.
“But then you’re up against Monaghan or Tyrone, which along with Galway and Mayo are the two games everybody in the country’s looking forward to seeing at this stage.
“Whoever comes out of that will be in a good place with confidence sky high. I think Armagh are capable of giving a better account of themselves than last year and see where it takes them.”
They meet Fermanagh on May 19 hoping to break that sequence, having beaten the Ernemen in the Division Three final back at the end of March.
Both sides achieved promotion out of Division Three, though it was the Orchard who caught the eye as they seamlessly replaced lost attacking talents like Jamie Clarke, Stefan Campbell and Oisin O’Neill, while Gavin McParland missed most of the league through injury.
“I would have thought starting out that the players would have had wee bit of self doubt,” said Kernan.
“When you’re in that scenario, you do think ‘Jesus, we’re missing a good calibre of player there, how are we gonna cope with it?’
“You’d have to give credit to the management because they obviously let the players know that one man missing was another man’s opportunity. They had so many new faces this year that staked a claim and ended up getting loads of league football, and they comprehensively came out of the division.”
They reached the All-Ireland quarter-final last year through the back door after a deflating loss to rivals Down in Ulster and while a similar would create greater momentum, Kernan feels that a major emphasis has to be placed on progression further up the league pyramid.
“You don’t see the big turnover in Divisions One and Two, but if you’re a yo-yo team, spending a couple of years in Division Two and then down to Three, and then back up, that’s where boys start thinking twice about giving the commitment.
“It’s huge to have them back up in Division Two. It’s massive that they meet the league head on next year – it needs to be treated like championship for them, to make sure they stay in it and let them develop at that level, then start pushing on in Ulster and start competing in Ulster finals and winning them again.”
