Allianz National Football League Division One: Monaghan v Mayo (tomorrow, 2pm, Clones)
IT’S early in the year yet, the frost on the windscreen an unwelcome reminder that the summer months are a long way away. But a cursory look at the Championship odds tells you how the market rates Monaghan and Mayo before a ball has been kicked in anger in the League.
Mayo finished 2017 in an all too familiar place – looking up at the steps of the Hogan Stand as somebody wearing a jersey that wasn’t green and red lifted Sam above their head.
Despite that, despite reaching a fourth All-Ireland final in six years, despite their one-sided replay dismissal of Kerry in the last four, Mayo start 2018 at 6/1, third favourites behind the Dubs and the Kingdom.
That may come as a shock, but it shouldn’t. Because with every year that passes, every campaign that ends in shuddering disappointment, the feeling pervades that this group cannot go to the well another time.
They came so close to exiting against Derry and Cork in the Qualifiers before instinct carried them through. It was only when they reached the big stage that they came alive.
After so many years on the road, the thought of another League campaign surely does little to get the juices flowing for so many of this Mayo group. The same of potential back door banana skins in the middle of July.
So, as he plots a course to eke another shot at the greatest prize, what benefit the next couple of months for Stephen Rochford? Every year they have added two or three players of worth to the panel for the summer, and that will be the aim again.
The team that defeated Sligo in the FBD League final bore a largely familiar look, but talented forward Conor Loftus will look to kick on this year.
Also, the pace and ball-carrying ability of wing-back Shairoze Akram - a key member of the All-Ireland winning U21 team two years ago – could be a useful addition as 2018 wears on.
Monaghan, meanwhile, are available at odds of 50/1 to lift Sam, joint eighth favourites alongside Kildare and Roscommon and, perhaps surprisingly, behind Donegal, Galway and Cork in the betting.
That is partly down to a disappointing 2017 when, after a League that promised so much, the wheels came off in Ulster Championship defeat to Down before they were humbled by the Dubs.
Like tomorrow’s opponents, Malachy O’Rourke has relied largely on the same core group of experienced men throughout his five-year tenure. But the nature of that defeat last August, and the Dubs’ subsequent demolition of an equally defensive Tyrone, demonstrated that some radical rethinking was required.
Although they haven’t yet managed to topple Jim Gavin’s men in Championship football, Mayo have come as close as anybody in recent years, their energetic all-out approach providing the template for others to follow.
And the signs are O’Rourke has taken that on board. In their Dr McKenna Cup semi-final defeat to Donegal, Monaghan broke with tradition and played three out and out full-forwards, with a clear plan to kick the ball inside.
The net defeat was a 10 point defeat, their more open approach resulting in Donegal finding the back of the net four times, but these are early days.
If O’Rourke intends to continue trialling this system, there could be a few more tough afternoons along the way, with the aim to hit their pitch by the time they take on Tyrone on May 20.
Monaghan started last year’s League with two points in Castlebar, but Mayo can reverse those roles at Clones tomorrow.
