All-Ireland Senior Football Championship quarter-final: Dublin v Monaghan (tonight, 6pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event)
WHEN you look down the list of teams who came closest to ending Dublin’s undefeated run before Kerry finally finished them off at 36, few pushed them as hard as Monaghan.
Mayo led the charge, taking them to a replay in the 2015 All-Ireland semi-final and last September’s decider, ultimately missing out on both occasions.
Tyrone looked to have their number before the Dubs snatched a draw in February, Kerry came close on a couple of times too – March’s feisty draw down in Killarney proving a warning shot before the Kingdom eventual overhauling of the kings.
But in each of their three meetings with Monaghan during that unbeaten run, the Dubs had to dig deep to get over the line.
After two one-point wins in 2016, they came from six behind on the last day of this year’s Division One campaign, Jack McCaffrey’s injury-time goal snatching a victory they barely deserved on an afternoon when another Jack – Monaghan’s McCarron – stole the show with an impressive 1-9 haul.
The moral of the story is that, in an age when so many counties travel to Croke Park with one foot already out the door, the same cannot be said of Malachy O’Rourke’s Farneymen.
Yet they come into today’s meeting with the back-to-back All-Ireland champions having stuttered, rather than strolled, into the last eight.
Outmuscled by Down in Ulster, outhustled by Carlow for large parts and out of sorts for the first half of their rematch with the Mournemen, it has not been the Championship their League form promised.
McCarron, whose bustling brilliance lit up those spring months, has failed to sparkle in summer. The defensive solidity that has been a hallmark of O’Rourke’s side since he succeeded Eamonn McEneaney in 2012 has been infiltrated by doubt.
Down caught them unawares at the Athletic Grounds, the quality and directness of their kick-passing cutting out Monaghan’s ‘middle eight’ and leaving their full-back line exposed.
Even then, the normally reliable Drew Wylie – generally regarded as one of the top full-backs in the country – came a distant second best in his one-on-one battle with Connaire Harrison.
The narrative coming into last week’s renewal was that the Farneymen wouldn’t – couldn’t - make the same mistakes again. Wrong.
For the first 35 minutes, it was like watching a replay of that first encounter.
Having missed the Ulster semi-final defeat, Gavin Doogan was brought back in to shore up that central area but was largely bypassed.
Colin Walshe, a rock solid full-back by trade, has looked lost at centre-back at times, unsure where to be and what space to occupy in a Monaghan side that always operates with at least one sweeper.
Worryingly, Wylie was taken to the cleaners by Harrison again.
Down created and missed two good goalscoring chances in the first half as Monaghan stayed in touch thanks largely to the supreme free-taking prowess of Conor McManus.
Had they been up against any of the top teams in the country, not least the all-conquering Dubs, Monaghan would have been cut adrift by half-time.
But, to give O’Rourke his dues, he righted almost all of those wrongs after the break. Whereas they had barely contested a Michael Cunningham kick-out in the first half, Monaghan pushed up in waves and forced errors from the Mournemen.
Karl O’Connell and Kieran Hughes led the charge while the clever movement of McManus caused mayhem in the Down defence. From the bench, Conor McCarthy’s fresh legs wreaked havoc as he registered four points from play, while McCarron showed glimpses of his promise.
Considering how he performed against the Dubs in the League, the Currin forward could be handed a starting berth today in a two-man inside line with McManus, while the industrious Owen Duffy will likely line out.
O’Rourke may be tempted to start McCarthy but he has had a greater impact from the bench this year, and may well be held in reserve as Monaghan hope to be in contention going into the final quarter.
To do that, they must close up the gaps left open against Down.
Firstly, they can’t afford to sit off Stephen Cluxton’s kick-outs as the Dubs are only too happy to pick their way through the meanest defence, never mind one showing such signs of vulnerability.
Dublin have so much scoring potential across the field that they can kill a game within minutes. In the 2014 All-Ireland quarter-final, two goals and a point in the space of four minutes effectively ended the Farney challenge before the break.
The class of 2017 can be just as deadly. With so many established stars still at the top of their games, 21-year-old Con O’Callaghan looked to the manor born in the Leinster final clash with Kildare, scoring 0-12, five from play.
At the other end of the age scale, Bernard Brogan came on after 24 minutes and lit up Croke Park once more, also landing five from play.
However, like Monaghan, they have yet to hit the heights some expected this year. For all their attacking verve against the Lilywhites, there were concerns at the other end as the pace of the Kildare forwards gave Gavin’s men headaches all afternoon.
Cian O’Sullivan, for so long Dublin’s invisible wall, looks ill at ease when given man-marking duties, with Daniel Flynn giving him plenty of trouble.
The possible return of Paul Flynn to midfield, alongside Brian Fenton, looks to have come at the best possible time therefore.
With Flynn back, James McCarthy – who looked uncomfortable at midfield against Kildare – will drop back, while O’Sullivan is expected to be restored to his more familiar sweeper role presuming Monaghan only leave two inside.
The Farneymen will travel to the capital with no fear. They have taken Dublin right to the edge enough times to know they are not far away.
However, so much needs to go right for them to even have a chance. They have only had a week’s break to a fortnight for Dublin, and have had plenty of kinks to iron out during those seven days.
O’Rourke is a conservative coach by nature but, somehow, he has to strike the right balance between attacking adventure and defensive discipline – a huge ask against such a strong outfit.
Don’t be surprised if Monaghan are still in this game heading towards the final 20 minutes – they would snap your hand off for that now.
But by the time the sun goes down at Croke Park, it will be Dublin who are setting off towards the semi-final.
