Allianz Football League Division Two, round seven: Fermanagh v Derry (Sunday, Brewster Park, Enniskillen, 2pm)
"IT'S a very simple equation for the players," says Derry boss Damian Barton. The Oak Leafers know they must beat Fermanagh to have any chance of survival.
The Ernemen are in a similar position, although a draw might suffice for them. Both sides in Brewster know that defeat will demote them.
How Derry go about achieving only a second victory in this league campaign is the tricky question for the visiting management.
"We could 'park the bus', and at times we have parked the bus," acknowledges Barton, "but it depends what people are doing whenever they are behind the ball.
"I think we can do an awful lot better in terms of defending, irrespective of what strategy we use."
There was improvement of sorts in Cork last weekend, with a first clean sheet, especially after leaking five goals in Galway the previous weekend.
Derry were boosted by the return of some Slaughtneil players after their All-Ireland Club SFC Final defeat, Barton points out: "The inclusion of Brendan [Rogers], Chrissy [McKaigue], and Padraig Cassidy at midfield were pluses in that regard. Maybe we were a bit more conscious of keeping goal chances out, although Cork did hit the post."
Another Slaughtneil defender, Karl McKaigue, is named in defence after taking a brief break last weekend, which should help further, but sensibly Barton wasn't satisfied by not letting in a goal:
"It's never a positive when you concede 20 points, never a positive when two players account for the majority of those scores.
"It's been our Achilles' heel, the concession of scores, ever since the [first round] Clare game… Since then we haven't met our defensive targets."
Derry have at least scored well in three of their last four matches, the exception being only 1-7 in the home loss to Down. The Mournemen could hurt them again tomorrow, Barton knows.
"Everything's to play for, depending on how another result goes [Down away to Cork]…
"If we're good enough, we'll keep our end of the bargain, fingers crossed – but we will go down if Down win."
Even a draw for Down might demote Derry, so the Oak Leaf focus has to be on themselves, though – and winning. "It's a very simple equation for the players. Any management team prepares a team to go out to win; how it's managed on the pitch is the most important part of that whole process.
"We've had challenges along the way and it would be hugely positive if we retained Division Two status.
"Our opponents are obviously looking at it the same way. They have had a very good record at Brewster Park so we know the magnitude of our challenge.
"But that challenge starts with ourselves. We have great footballers, I still believe very much in their ability, although aspects of our game-management we can improve on.
Danny Heavron could be key to that; although the Magherafelt man is unlikely to play the full match, he's named for the first time since an injury stemming back to last year's All-Ireland qualifier exit against Tipperary.
James Kielt is "OK" after a strain ruled him out against Cork, while Mark Lynch is also on the bench after playing 20-odd minutes last weekend.
Fermanagh have mostly swung between impressive and awful – destroying Down and defeating Clare, but increasingly well-beaten by Galway, Cork, Kildare, and especially Meath, who inflicted an 18-point hammering on them last time out.
The perennial problem for Pete McGrath and his players is the struggle for scores, with the lowest tally 'for' in this division, just 1-73.
Barton remains wary, though, having seen them thrash Down in Newry, who in turn whipped Derry in Celtic Park, commenting:
"Fermanagh's commitment to the cause has won many plaudits, and rightly so. We know they're going to defend in numbers and attack in numbers. It's an arm-wrestle - and hopefully we'll come out on top."
At least not in the bottom two.
Fermanagh: T Treacy; M Jones, C Cullen, K Connor; C Murphy, B Mulrone, A Breen; E Donnelly, L Cullen; P McCusker, R Jones, R Lyons; E Courtney, S Quigley, D Teague
Derry: T Mallon; K McKaigue, B Rogers, N Keenan; N Forester, C McKaigue, D Heavron; P Cassidy, C McAtamney; E Lynn, E McGuckin, C McWilliams; D Tallon, N Loughlin, B Heron.
Referee: Martin McNally (Monaghan).
