All-Ireland Senior Football Championship final: Dublin v Mayo (tomorrow, 3.30pm, RTÉ1 & Sky Sports 2)
WE’VE been here before. Mayo? Beat Dublin? In an All-Ireland final? There’s more chance of Jim Gavin doing a celebratory tap dance on the steps of the Hogan Stand.
Capable of mesmerising brilliance, they have given the game of Gaelic football some of its greatest exponents. On their day, anything is possible – or so we’re told. Just you watch.
But when it comes to the crunch, nobody blows it on the big day quite like Mayo.
And yet, for all those who have already written off tomorrow’s All-Ireland final as a Sky Blue whitewash, the chorus of whispers talking up Mayo’s chances of denying the Dubs a double grows ever louder with each passing day.
It’s only natural. Nobody wants to believe there is only one possible outcome in a two-horse race, especially when it comes to a showpiece final.
Pragmatists will weigh up the pros and cons before inevitably plumping for the favourite. Those more romantic souls will make a case for the little man triumphing above all odds.
In Mayo’s case, that seemingly fanciful notion is built upon solid foundations, and those who believe the west can finally awake tomorrow afternoon have been puffing out their chests and spreading the good word.
So who do we have to thank for this rising wave of confidence? This growing belief in a 10/3 underdog? Kerry. Well, Kerry and five minutes of Stephen Cluxton calamity.
By the high standards set since the turn of the decade, Mayo – in terms of performance – have had an indifferent summer. They surrendered their Connacht title for the first time in five years when Galway stormed the Castle back in June.
Stephen Rochford’s men were uninspiring against Fermanagh and did what they needed to against Kildare and Westmeath. Although they snuffed out an uninspired Tyrone in the last eight, they would have been roundly disregarded had they been paired with Dublin at the semi-final stage.
By then, Jim Gavin’s juggernaut was steam-rolling over the top of all who stood before them.
Step forward Kerry. Two goals in five minutes, five ahead at half-time, the normally ice-cold Cluxton looking like he’d seen the ghost of Sam Maguire. The Dubs were rattled.
Even laying a glove on Dublin these days is enough to spark hysteria and invite hope.
As a result of that game, because it certainly has nothing to do with Mayo’s underwhelming last four win over Tipperary, the optics heading into tomorrow’s All-Ireland final have been altered completely.
Kerry exposed previously unseen flaws in Dublin. They shook the immovable object to its core – but they still lost. The question remains though – if an aging, creaking Kingdom can push the Dubs to the edge, why can’t Mayo send them over it?
Stephen Rochford and Tony McEntee will certainly have taken plenty of encouragement from what transpired at Croke Park on August 28.
No doubt they will also have studied the last time Mayo faced Dublin in an All-Ireland final three years ago. That day, they conceded all Cluxton’s kick-outs.
One point separated the counties at the close of play – but it was as comfortable a one-point victory as you will see.
Considering the joy Kerry had in pressing the Dublin kick-outs, Mayo would be mad not to repeat the dose. Because what we saw then was a domino effect – when Cluxton panics, Dublin panic. When Dublin panic, the Hill panics.
For those few minutes, crisis loomed large on the horizon. Like a boxer saved by the bell at the end of a bad round, they were lucky half-time was just around the corner.
Mayo can’t afford to give away cheap possession, so expect the likes of Patrick Durcan and Colm Boyle to push up high to support their wing forwards when Cluxton is taking aim.
Kieran Donaghy’s movement also caused problems for the Dublin defence, as ‘Star’ moved in and out of full-forward, dragging Philly McMahon with him and leaving Cian O’Sullivan in two minds about where to go.
If Aidan O’Shea is deployed to similar effect, with Cillian O’Connor dropping out to half-forward to occupy O’Sullivan, it could unsettle a Dublin full-back line that doesn’t look as strong without Rory O’Carroll.
Against Tyrone, Mayo’s best performance of the year, Rochford got it right as Mayo negated the Red Hands’ running game. They showed that, unlike in previous years, they are capable of shutting up shop at the back and making teams pay when they fashion their own chances.
Take last year’s semi-final replay as an example of that transition. Mayo were five points up with 15 minutes to go in the semi-final replay against Dublin and ended up losing by eight. Would the class of 2016 surrender such a lead in that timeframe? It’s doubtful.
Hear more from Enda and Christy ahead of Sunday's final in our blog> https://t.co/dimPo02U0O pic.twitter.com/p6yc8IjWpm
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On the flip side, would the current, more conservative Mayo side find themselves five points up on the Dubs in the first place?
Jim Gavin is so consumed with what happens inside his blue bubble that the opinions of the outside world won’t have entered his thoughts. For their part Dublin, perhaps rightly, will feel the Cluxton ‘meltdown’ has been overplayed.
If high hopes are being placed on the outside chance of him making such a huge gaffe again, more fool Mayo.
Conversely, they will most likely have their own plan in place for Mayo custodian David Clarke.
The Ballina man goes short at every possible opportunity but when forced to go long, his high, looping kick-outs possess none of the pace and radar-like accuracy of a swing of Cluxton’s left boot.
Across their forward line and right through their bench, Dublin have match-winners everywhere. Kevin McManamon’s directness causes chaos in the tightest of defences, while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of breathtaking feats of score-taking off either side.
They haven’t quite mastered getting the ball to Bernard Brogan close to goal this year, but with the likes of Paul Mannion, Paddy Andrews and Cormac Costello on the bench they are not exactly short of scoring options.
All over the field, they boast power, pace and athleticism that no other team can equal – not even a Mayo side who are much better than the odds offered by the bookies.
Kerry may have proved that the Dubs can be got at, but they didn’t prove they can be beaten because the men in Sky Blue still walked off the field victorious.
Call me a pragmatist, but it’s hard to escape the feeling that similar scenes of celebration await on the Hill tomorrow afternoon.
TEAM TALK
DUBLIN (Probable): S Cluxton; P McMahon, J Cooper, D Byrne; J McCarthy, C O’Sullivan, J Small; B Fenton, MD Macauley; P Flynn, K McManamon, C Kilkenny; D Rock, D Connolly, B Brogan
JIM Gavin is unlikely to tinker with a winning formula, despite some genuine concerns emerging from the semi-final win over Kerry. Stephen Cluxton may have had a nightmare but he is as close to untouchable as it gets, while Michael Darragh Macauley struggled against the Kingdom but can be expected to hold onto his place. Outside of the starting 15, Dublin’s bench is stacked with talent, as the likes of Paul Mannion, Eoghan O’Gara, Denis Bastick and Michael Fitzsimons push for game-time.
MAYO: D Clarke; B Harrison, D Vaughan, K Higgins; L Keegan, C Boyle, P Durcan; S O’Shea, T Parsons; K McLoughlin, A O’Shea, D O’Connor; C O’Connor, A Moran, J Doherty
STEPHEN Rochford has made one change from the team that beat Tipperary in the semi-final. Barry Moran was brought in for the Tipp game to play almost as an extra full-back and help counter-act with the Premier’s direct tactics. The Castlebar man delivered the goods. However, the Dubs pose a much different threat and Moran drops out for the more mobile Tom Parsons, who is named at midfield alongside Seamus O’Shea, with Donal Vaughan selected at full-back.
Dublin Tactical Take
EVEN though they ended up two-point winners over Kerry, the Kingdom posed more questions than have been asked of the Dubs so far this year. For a five-minute spell before half-time, the normally ice cool Stephen Cluxton appeared spooked as the Dubs coughed up 2-2.
Kerry’s first goal came after an uncharacteristically sloppy kick-out, the second when the goalkeeper and full-back line failed to deal with a high ball. Despite those moments of panic, Dublin regrouped at half-time and came out firing.
Gavin often speaks about sticking to the process and remaining calm – their game-plan is well defined at this stage, and they have the shooters in the forward division to inflict maximum damage. It’s at the back where question marks linger, especially if Mayo go after Cluxton’s kick-outs with the same hunger as Kerry.
How Dublin handle Aidan O’Shea could also be key, with the Breaffy man expected to drift in and out as Kieran Donaghy did to such effect. Philly McMahon is likely to be handed that detail.
Mayo Tactical Take
HOW much will Mayo boss Stephen Rochford have gleaned from Kerry’s performance against Dublin? Have the Kingdom provided the template from which the Westerners can go forth and finish the job? It would be crude to think Jim Gavin won’t have learned lessons from his team’s shortcomings that day as well.
Mobility will be a crucial factor tomorrow, hence Tom Parsons’s selection instead of Barry Moran. All 15 men will have to be on point for the full 70 minutes.
In both games against Dublin last year, Mayo lumped the ball towards Aidan O’Shea on the edge of the square time and again, with mixed results.
Kieran Donaghy’s movement for Kerry flummoxed Dublin at times, and O’Shea and Cillian O’Connor could both roam in and out in a bid to unsettle the Dubs’ fragile fullback line.
At the other end of the field, Rochford is blessed with some sticky manmarkers in the likes of Lee Keegan, Colm Boyle and Donal Vaughan, men who are also capable of breaking the lines and posing an offensive threat.
