All-Ireland Senior Football Championship semi-final: Mayo v Tipperary (tomorrow, 3.30pm, Croke Park, live on RTÉ One and Sky Sports 2HD)
IN the modest surroundings of Fraher Field and Ruislip, there were no clues to this.
On the opening afternoon of Championship football back on May 29, occasional glances, at best, were offered as Mayo coasted in London and Tipperary reaffirmed their recent superiority over Waterford.
A weekend that saw Connacht’s rugby team claim an historic Pro12 title and a Madrid derby in the Champions League final, the headlines were scarce for either of tomorrow’s combatants.
Fast forward 12 Sundays and here we have one of the most unfancied All-Ireland semi-final pairings of all time.
For Tipperary, this is an historic occasion. On Friday past, it was 81 years to the day since they last rocked up at Croke Park for the penultimate stage of a football Championship.
As Munster champions, they ran the Cavan side that would go on to win it to two points.
Unless Mayo happen to go on and break their 65-year curse, the narrative of 2016 will belong to Tipperary. They have no intentions of letting this be the final chapter.
When Kerry cruised to a ten-point Munster final win over the Premier men, that was set to be the breaking of a fairytale still in its early throes, but one which had produced victory over Cork for the first time since 1944.
But they recovered to shake off Derry in the game of the season before carrying that fearlessness into Croke Park, where they pummelled Galway into an unexpected submission.
It is their relentlessness that defines their character.
Last year, they’d thrown away a huge lead to lose agonisingly to Cork. When they lost the same huge lead this year and found themselves level with 30 seconds of normal time to play, the steel was there to break the mould.
The Derry see-sawed for 69 minutes and when Danny Heavron kicked the Oak Leafers two clear, it looked like the end of the road. But five added minutes were enough for them to rescue that one as well, without even the need for extra-time.
There was no comeback needed against Galway in a game that Tipperary dominated from the moment that Michael Quinlivan reacted sharply to palm home an early goal.
That afternoon was brilliant for them for historic reasons, but it also displayed the learnings Liam Kearns has made with this team in his first year in charge.
The Munster final was the one occasion this year that Tipperary played with fear. They gave Kerry far too much respect. They went away from their own system and didn’t show any belief in their own ability.
Withdrawing their entire half-forward line into defence and operating with a full-time sweeper, they hadn’t their trademark penetration in attack. Kerry were at their leisure.
The fact that they still scored 2-10 off more limited opportunities that day underlines how good this Tipperary attack can be.
All the while, they’re tweaking. Against Derry, Robbie Kiely operated as the free man but he attacked at will. It was too open, though, and against Galway they brought Brian Fox back as a sweeper.
Mayo have been rubbing their hands at the prospect of facing Tipperary in an All-Ireland semi-final, but they will have to treat the Munster side with the same respect they showed Tyrone.
The Red Hands are still a better side than Tipperary but they have areas of weakness. Mayo exploited the one-dimensional nature of their attacking game by pressurising hard in the 50 metres around their own goal, safe in the knowledge that Tyrone wouldn’t look to kick the ball to their full-forward line.
Tipperary are slightly more difficult to second guess. They will have runners like Kielt, Peter Acheson, Josh Keane and the powerful Philip Austin looking to break the line.
But if Mayo squeeze too high, then the threat of a kick to Michael Quinlivan and Conor Sweeney will be a live one.
Mayo have reinstated Kevin Keane in their starting line-up and it’s unlikely that, as against Tyrone, he will taken out at the last minute.
That move was Stephen Rochford’s carefully planned and hugely effective response to Tyrone’s double-sweeper. Putting Alan Dillon in had a major impact on first half proceedings and forced Mickey Harte’s hand in withdrawing Justin McMahon before half-time.
Concerns hang above Mayo’s full-back line. Keane’s weakness is beneath the high ball so even if he does start, it’s likely that he will not play at full-back.
Could we see Donal Vaughan, who’s recently been playing in midfield, on the edge of his own square against Quinlivan to plug that gap?
He stands out as the one defensive-minded player on the Mayo team who will comfortably deal with the aerial threat that Quinlivan – who has hit 2-20 this summer, 2-12 of it from play – will pose.
Brendan Harrison will look to continue his fine form when he picks up Conor Sweeney. The Ballyporeen forward has hit 2-7 from play in the last two games and represents another serious threat to Mayo’s passage.
Rochford didn’t have his team press the Tyrone kickout in the way many thought they would. Not doing so allowed them to get set defensively, and it worked.
But it may be a case of horses for courses. They would hold the same physical advantage in midfield as they did against Tyrone, but crucially, the Tipperary attacking script is not so rigid. Conceding possession could prove to be a mistake.
Off a poor start, Mayo finally imposed themselves on the summer against Tyrone. Their obvious abilities matched by a raised intensity and a sound tactical plan brought them back on the plain of All-Ireland contenders.
Lee Keegan’s superb quarter-final display will have renewed his confidence and Keith Higgins looked more at home in a deeper position than the half-forward berth he’d been in for the rest of the summer.
Diarmuid O’Connor will probably never be as quiet again and his brother Cillian is warming nicely as the third Sunday of September comes into view.
Mixing up Aidan O’Shea’s role caused Tyrone defensive problems and that’s something Mayo will surely carry forward. Having him starving on the edge of the square for 20 minutes at a time is no use to them, but he retains the potential to cause chaos on rare forays while dominating a game around the middle.
His brother Seamus was outstanding the last day but Tipperary’s kickouts this year have been first class. Evan Comerford seems to ignore all risk and go short, even to marked men. That displays some level of trust in the men he’s kicking to.
If they can make that work and counteract Mayo’s physical strength in the middle, then they’ll have the building blocks. And if they are to be serious semi-finalists, they must carry the lesson of the Munster final and not bow to their opponents tactically.
Provided Tipp attack the game, it’s hard to anticipate there being much between them. But Mayo should have enough on their bench to see them across the line.
