Eirgrid All-Ireland U21 Football Championship semi-final: Dublin v Mayo (O’Connor Park, Tullamore, 2.45pm today)
CORRECTLY predicting U21 winners involves the ability to look both backwards and forwards.
Considering what players achieved at Minor level is a decent indicator, as is how many of them have already stepped onto the senior stage or are likely to do so in the next few years.
The latter isn’t much of a gauge for Dublin, though, given how difficult it is to break into their senior panel.
Mayo won the All-Ireland MFC three years ago, defeating Westmeath, Monaghan, then Tyrone in the All-Ireland series – and they have the bulk of that team back.
The Connacht champions include the reigning Young Footballer of the Year, Diarmuid O’Connor, again deploying him at midfield, while attacker Conor Loftus and wing-back Michael Hall made good impressions with their seniors this year.
Yet Dublin are the recent powerhouse at this level, racking up their third consecutive Leinster success, their fifth in eight seasons, those previous triumphs having led on to All-Ireland U21 victories in 2010, 2012, and 2014.
In contrast, this year brought Mayo’s first Connacht triumph since 2009, which was also the last year they reached their provincial final.
Dublin have lost some serious talent from last year’s U21 side, with Cormac Costello, David Byrne, Eric Lowndes, and Shane Carthy all now in Jim Gavin’s senior panel.
However, they retain goalkeeper Lorcan Molloy, joint-captains Eoin Murchan and Andy Foley, and forward Colm Basquel, whose early goal helped Ballyboden St Enda’s to a comfortable All-Ireland Club Final win – over Mayo opposition (Castlebar).
Dessie Farrell’s young Dubs have negotiated a fairly tough patch to this stage, albeit with home advantage against both Meath and Laois before needing extra time to see off Kildare in the Leinster decider.
The Lilywhites were well-fancied, having beaten Dublin by 10 points in the 2013 Leinster Minor semi-final, en route to a provincial victory, before losing out to Roscommon in that year’s All-Ireland quarter-finals.
Indeed Kildare had a flying start in the Leinster U21 Final, so much so that Dublin were 9-2 down towards the end of the first half, before a goal from Con O’Callaghan sparked a revival.
The Cuala clubman has easily been Dublin’s leading scorer, notching 2-19 so far, 2-10 of that tally from play. It’s always good to have main marksman, but the Dubs also have a spread of other scorers.
Brian Reape leads the way for Mayo, but 2-3 of his 2-4 came against Leitrim in the semi-final; Loftus has scored 0-4 and 0-3 so far.
Mayo’s only true test has been the Connacht Final against Roscommon – but what a test. The Rossies, as mentioned, beat that impressive Kildare side when they were Minors and were aiming for a third consecutive title in their seventh provincial U21 final in a row, having also won in 2010 and 2012.
Michael Solan’s Mayo lads trailed by 1-3 to no score early on, only led for the first time through Liam Irwin’s goal three minutes from time, and still needed Michael Plunkett to fire a winning point in added time.
This could be as tight as recent Championship tussles between the counties’ senior sides; maybe this time the difference will be that Mayo will shade it.
PATHS TO THE SEMI-FINAL:
Dublin
Leinster quarter-final: Dublin 1-12 Meath 0-9
Leinster semi-final: Dublin 2-17 Laois 2-5
Leinster Final: Dublin 2-14 Kildare 0-17 (aet)
Mayo
Connacht semi-final: Leitrim 0-15 Mayo 4-12
Connacht Final: Mayo 1-11 Roscommon 1-10
