All-Ireland Senior Football Championship semi-final: Dublin v Mayo
(Sunday, Croke Park, 3.30pm, live on RTÉ2 and Sky Sports)
EAST and west collide on Sunday in a battle between two football superpowers, and a cold war doesn’t look on the cards. The action at Croke Park should be red-hot from the start between two in-form sides that have served up some memorable duels down the years.
Mayo are in the semi-finals for a fifth year in-a-row, while Dublin, desperate to force a final spot and reclaim the Sam Maguire Donegal ripped from their grasp at this stage last season, have been regulars since 2010.
The Dubs have won two titles in their recent history, while Mayo lost finals in 2012 and '13 (to Dublin) and have been unable to shake off an unwelcome reputation for choking when the chips were down.
After a Herculean effort in a two-game semi-final epic against Kerry last year, manager James Horan bowed out in tears. He had marched his men to the top of the hill, but they were unable to plant the Mayo flag on the summit and some predicted Mayo would decline after his departure. But new management duo Pat Holmes and Noel Connelly have injected fresh impetus and come up with a system that works for a talented and experienced group of players.
In the quarter-final win over Donegal, the westerners adopted a 1-2-2-4-4-1-1 formation and it’s hard to see them straying too far from that on Sunday. Ger Cafferkey and Chris Barrett were used as the man markers, but Bernard Brogan took Cafferkey for 2-3 in the 2013 final, so Holmes and Connelly are likely to put skipper Keith Higgins on Dublin’s talismanic forward. If Barrett starts on the dangerous Dean Rock, Cafferkey could adopt a sweeper role on the left side of defence, with Colm Boyle manning the right.
Mayo play two dynamic lines of four across the middle third. In the half-back line, the likes of Lee Keegan – quick and skilful and full of running – Kevin McLoughlin and Jason Doherty all work hard and will chip in with scores. Keegan may be sacrificed to cancel out Dublin playmaker Diarmuid Connolly, who only needs a yard of space to change a game, so Keegan will have his work cut out McLoughlin’s detail will be to throw Dublin wing-back Jack McCaffrey off balance. McCaffrey proved how dangerous he can be against Fermanagh when he broke from defence with a mazy run and then cracked in a sliderule 40-yard pass to Bernard Brogan, who buried it past Thomas Treacy.
Barry Moran, used as sweeper last time out to deal with the aerial threat of Donegal’s Michael Murphy, will play around midfield, where he will join the in-form Séamus O’Shea and Tom Parsons in attempting to blot out Dublin’s Denis Bastick and Bryan Fenton. Séamus O’Shea is playing excellent football this season and, to go along with his ball-winning ability, he has developed into an astute passer – both of Mayo’s quarter-final goals came as a direct result of his vision.
Up front, Mayo’s use of Aidan O’Shea at full-forward has added a new dimension to their attack, with Cillian O’Connor playing off him. Aidan O’Shea has been at his swashbuckling best this season and Mayo will look to isolate him and Rory O’Carroll and then send the ball in fast and direct. O’Connor wasn’t at his sharpest in the quarter-final when he landed frees, but (like the 2013 All-Ireland final) didn’t score from play. Mayo will need more from him on Sunday.
Meanwhile, from Bernard Brogan and Dean Rock inside to the half-forward line of Diarmuid Connolly, Paddy Andrews, Paul Flynn and Ciarán Kilkenny, Dublin have a battery of forwards to die for – and they’ve got more on the bench with the likes of Alan Brogan and Kevin McManaman. Bernard Brogan has been in superb form this season, with 5-16 already and the supporting cast has helped lay Longford, Kildare and Westmeath to waste. Only Fermanagh have kept the margin of defeat below double-figures.
While Dublin are dominant in Leinster, Mayo are equally so in Connacht and won a fifth provincial crown this year. Wins over Galway and Sligo were expected, but it was the victory over Donegal that really caught the eye and suggested the county’s long wait for a Sam Maguire might soon be over. Although there wasn’t much in it until Aidan O’Shea got his goal just before the break, Mayo were playing with an intensity and energy that Donegal were struggling to match and, if they repeat that on Sunday, Dublin will have a real fight on their hands.
They’ll expect that anyway because the last five Championship meetings have resulted in two wins for each side and a draw back in 1985. All of those contests were absorbing and we should be in for another on Sunday.
Dublin are a more talented group of players, but the winner of this game will be the best unit and Mayo have the system and the personnel to shade a thriller.
