Football

All-Ireland Dub-ble may prove no Barney rubble

The former Jesuit seminarian Barney Curley may have landed a major betting coup last week, but it looks like the bookies can look forward to reclaiming some of their lost money in this year's League and Championship.

Curley left the Jesuits after falling sick with TB. He was seven years into his studies for the priesthood. Had the Fermanagh man stayed, Pope Francis mightn't have become the first member of the Order to make to the Vatican. Any man who can hit the bookies for £2m is capable of anything.

Curley once said that he 'felt sorry for the poor divils standing in bookie shops'. His sympathy is well placed. Taking big money from the bookies isn't easy. (A friend of a friend keeps in his possession a letter he received from Ladbrokes. The missive politely informed him that he was no longer allowed to open online accounts because he was winning too much money. Apparently, this was a breach of the company's policy).

The four horses involved in Curley's latest sting last week all returned to the racecourse after lengthy absences. Before the word started to spread, they were priced at 10/1, 7/1, 20/1, and 7/1.

A £1 pound accumulator would have paid £14,784.

But consider the odds for the National League, which starts on Saturday night. Dublin are 6/4 favourites. As 13/8 shots, they are even shorter odds for the All-Ireland title.

Anyone hoping to take £2m from the bookies by backing Dublin would need to place a bet of approximately £750,000. The bookies, lily-livered cowards that they are, probably wouldn't accept it.

They already reckon the All-Ireland title is a race for second place between Mayo (4/1), Kerry (9/2), Tyrone (10/1), Cork (10/1) and Donegal (12/1).

Those who want to ensure Paddy Power stays afloat after Barney Curley's latest ruse can make a donation to the company by backing Meath (25/1), Kildare (33/1), Derry (33/1), Down (40/1), Galway (40/1), Monaghan (50/1), Cavan (80/1), or Armagh (80/1). Faced with this litany of options, every punter must now be asking himself one obvious question: WWBD? (What would Barney do?) Of course Barney would probably spend four years covertly converting New York or London into a crack squad that would land the Connacht Championship.

But for the ordinary punter, the Dubs still look like the wisest bet. Having failed to take heed of some excellent advice last year, I'll not be making the same mistake again.

Around this time last year, I invited a friend from the capital to come up to Derry for a bike ride in the Sperrins. After three hours of rain, sleet and snow, we got talking about football.

Naturally, the discussion turned to Sam and September. My friend, who normally loads every prediction with about a dozen sub-clauses, was uncharacteristically emphatic. He said Dublin would win the All-Ireland title. They had the best players. They had the best squad. They had a proven manager. End of.

Twelve months later and my friend returned to Derry on Saturday. Yet again, he was subjected to another three hours of lashing rain. When he eventually thawed out, and we got talking about football, his prediction for this year's All-Ireland remained the same.

It's Dublin all the way. Once again, there were no caveats. His argument was simple and convincing. He said the Dubs had learned from the mistakes of 2011 when they partied too hard and too long. That's not happening this year.

The most compelling aspect of his argument centred on the strength of Dublin's squad. Last year, they had the best group of players by a country mile.

This year, they're probably stronger again. To make his case, he pointed to Ciaran Kilkenny, Paul Mannion and Jack McCaffery. After making the transition from U21 to senior football it was notable that all three struggled as the air got thinner in last year's Championship. That was perhaps inevitable.

Very few young players can cope with the pressures of an

All-Ireland final day.

Following their experiences in 2013, it can be assumed that Kilkenny, Mannion and McCaffrey are now better equipped for the challenges that lie ahead this season.

While Dublin could improve, their appeal grows even stronger when their list of challengers is examined.

Last year Mayo reminded us it's impossible to win an All-Ireland title without two good scoring forwards.

Mayo still don't have them.

Kerry have forwards, but question marks can be placed over every other sector of their team.

And Kerry's epic semi-final against Dublin cast them in a most flattering light. Had Dublin put Cian O'Sullivan on Colm Cooper from the start, it would have been a very different game.

Cork are finished.

That leaves us with Tyrone and Donegal. Both counties must be respected because their managers are excellent coaches. In a season when new rules are being introduced, clever coaches are a huge advantage.

But the limitations of Jim McGuinness's squad means he can't afford to have injuries or bad luck. Even black cards present a major worry.

If Karl Lacey, Michael Murphy or Colm McFadden were shown a black card in their Ulster opener against Derry at Celtic Park, the 2012 champions could be facing another trip through the back door. And the Qualifiers are no place for a manager with a threadbare squad.

As 10/1 shots, Tyrone are seriously tempting. In Sean Cavanagh (below), Stephen O'Neill, Conor Gormley and Joe McMahon, they have four dependable veterans.

On the evidence of last year, there is unquestionably a distinct gap between the Red hands and the very top teams. To bridge that divide, their new and emerging players must make rapid progress.

Tyrone need a man-marking corner-back and a playmaker who can unlock the potential in their full-forward line. Rookies like Barry Tierney and Shay McGuigan could fill those roles but they face a steep learning curve Meanwhile, former minor stars like Ronan O'Neill and Kyle Coney need to move to the next level. For motivation, Tyrone's new wave of players should consider the fact that they might never get a better chance to win an All-Ireland title. This year they will have Cavanagh, O'Neill,

Gormley and McMahon. But there is no guarantee that quartet will be there next season.

There is no doubt that Tyrone have huge potential. Given the number of players who will be busting themselves to make a good impression, they could very well win the National League. And at 5/1, they're decent value. So it's Tyrone for the League and the Dubs for Sam.

But please don't take too much heed of my advice. As my bookmaker can all too gladly testify, I'm no Barney

Curley.