AS a Manchester United fan, the last few days have mainly been about licking my wounds after a humbling derby defeat, while also trying to convince my boss to change my night off to Thursdays for the next few months.
Jose Mourinho’s men are back at the top table this season in the Europa League, but for some reason the Champions League has been given top billing when it comes to the European football season. After much persuasion from my colleagues, I’ve reluctantly agreed to preview the Champions League, which got going in low-key style last night with the meeting of such minnows as Barcelona and Celtic, and PSG and Arsenal.
Give me Astra Giurgiu against Austria Vienna every time. I’m messing, of course, and the whole point of the Europa League is to try and get back to the top tier next term, should league performances not suffice. The big games keep coming in the Champions League this evening, with Juventus facing last season’s Europa winners Sevilla, while holders Real Madrid swing back into action at home to Sporting Lisbon.
Once more, Real and the other members of the ‘big three’ – Barcelona and Real Madrid – are well clear at the top of the betting and have to be the first ports of call when trying to find a winner. The trio have shared the last four European Cups between them since Chelsea’s shock victory over Bayern in 2012.
The Munich men went one better a year later, but it has been Spanish domination all the way since, with Real defeating neighbours Atletico in two of the last three finals, and Barca’s victory over Juventus sandwiched in between. La Liga has seemingly been going away from the rest of Europe in recent times,and Barca are worthy jollies at 10/3 with Stan James (ahead of last night’s action) to claim the crown back.
Any team that has the talents of Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi have to be taken very seriously, while they are free of the burden of being defending champions. Barca will be hard to beat, although there are some negatives, especially on the back of their defeat to newlypromoted Alaves at the weekend.
They’ve also been handed a very tough group alongside Man City, Borussia Monchengladbach and Celtic, and are no penalty-kicks to Group C, while I’m not convinced Luis Enrique is the top-class manager he’s cracked up to be. Barca should be there come the latter stages, but the 10/3 doesn’t look like value to me. Likewise, I’m not particularly keen on Real at 11/2 (Paddy Power), with the very fact they are defending champions immediately ruling them out if you are a follower of trends.
No team has retained their crown in the Champions League era, and I can’t see it happening this season, with plenty of rumours of unrest in the Bernabeu dressing room. Like Barca, Real have the talent to ride out the storm, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale capable of ripping any defence to shreds, and Toni Kroos and Luka Modric two of the finest schemers about.
Zinedine Zidane was also a brilliant schemer as a player, but he has plenty to prove as a manager and I can’t see him delivering a second Champions League. Carlo Ancelotti already has three of those to his name as a coach, including one with Real, and he will be confident of making it four with his new club Bayern.
They started off at home to Rostov last night and will hope to still be standing come the final in Cardiff next May. Of the ‘big three’, Bayern are the strongest contenders in my view, with Mats Hummels and Renato Sanches adding real power to an already stellar squad.
The Bavarians were 4/1 generally ahead of last night’s action which might have been enough to entice some punters, and while they are in a tough group alongside Atletico, I don’t think they will have any problems going deep in the tournament, as they always do. However, this could be the year that a relative outsider can rise to the top, and it is ironic that my idea of the winners (unless something went badly wrong last night) are managed by a man who has previously been at the helm of two of the top three – Pep Guardiola.
He has hit the ground running with Man City, and the free-flowing manner with which they dismissed United at the weekend suggests something very good is brewing. Pep has never failed to get to the last four of the Champions League, although he was criticised in Germany for not getting Bayern past that stage. The semi-finals should be within City’s compass this year, even though they are in a group with Barca, with the new boss getting the best out of players who under-performed last season. David Silva and Kevin de Bruyne are revelling in more central roles, Fernandinho is excelling at the base of the midfield, while John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi are actually looking like defenders.
City also have attacking options in abundance, and in Sergio Aguero they have a man who is vying with Luis Suarez for the title of the best centre-forward in the world. City reached the last four last season despite their domestic struggles under Manuel Pellegrini, and I expect them to be right in the mix again this time around. Their tough draw is a slight negative but, at 12/1 with Boylesports before a ball was kicked last night, there is enough value in the price.
My other team to follow, Juventus, can also be backed at 12/1 and appeal greatly. Massimiliano Allegri lost Paul Pogba during the summer but got silly money in return and has invested it well, with Miralm Pjanic and Gonzalo Higuain coming in. The ‘Old Lady’ have also kept their famed backline together despite strong interest in Leonardo Bonucci who, alongside Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli and in front of Gigi Buffon, forms part of the hardest and possibly best defence in Europe.
Nobody will get the better of Juve without a fight, and they should come through Group H ahead of Sevilla, Lyon and Dinamo Zagreb. From there, nobody will want to face a side that reached the final two seasons ago.
The 12/1 generally available is possibly a bit too big and the Turin giants are real contenders to lift the European Cup for the first time since 1996. It promises to be another thrilling season in the Champions League, although for myself it’s all about Thursday nights.
You can't go Ron with Real superstar
THE top goalscorer market for the Champions League is dominated by players from Barcelona and Real Madrid, with Luis Suarez just about the favourite at 4/1 yesterday, with Cristiano Ronaldo a 9/2 shot with William Hill and Lionel Messi a general 5/1. Ronaldo and Messi have superb records at this level, but the Real man has been the dominant force in recent seasons, from a scoring point of view at least, and he has to be the bet again at the 9/2 on offer.
The Portuguese superstar has with been the top or joint-top scorer in each of the last four seasons and his 16 goals last term saw him seven clear of the rest. Robert Lewandowski was second and he might be worth each-way consideration again at 9/1, but with Real likely to go deep into the competition and drawn in a group with potential whipping boys Legia Warsaw, Ronaldo could fill his boots.
Elsewhere, it makes sense to go with strikers from the clubs I fancy to go well, which explains why I’ll put up both Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain. Aguero hasn’t been as prolific in Europe as he has in the Premier League over the years but Man City had largely struggled prior to last season yet seem to have found their European feet. And as the talisman at the head of their attacking line-up, Aguero should be presented with plenty of chances.
He has already registered a hat-trick in the qualifying rounds, when he also missed two spot-kicks against Steaua Bucharest, but he will still hit the penalties and should be a real force, so the 16/1 on offer with Ladbrokes looks too big. The reasons for backing Higuain are similar in that he is the focal point of a team that should enjoy success.
The Argentine has enjoyed a fruitful time in Italy, and averaged better than a goal a game with Napoli last term. He has got three goals in as many games since his switch to Juventus, and shows no signs of slowing down. Higuain is also available at 16/1 and rates as a fine each-way bet.
Meanwhile, four more groups get going tonight and I like the look of a double on Spurs (6/5) and Porto (5/4) topping Groups E and G respectively. Playing at Wembley might be a slight negative for Spurs but they are a very good side and can get the better of Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco and CSKA Moscow. Porto are great at home which should be enough to see them top their section ahead of Leicester, Club Brugge and Copenhagen.
The Spurs-Porto double pays just under 4/1 and should be backed. As for the Europa League, betting at the start of the season is not always the best idea given that some decent teams will inevitably drop down from the Champions League. Manchester United are the big favourites at 6/1 and should have the squad and motivation to go well. However, 15/1 second favourites Roma might be worth a small bet.
The Italians were third in Serie A last season but lost out to Porto in Champions League qualifying, which was a real blow. That said, they have some real quality in the likes of Edin Dzeko, Radja Nainggolan and the evergreen pair of Daniele de Rossi and Francesco Totti and can have a good tilt at this one.
