IRELAND'S boxers, pro and amateur; presidents; refs and an ex-Irish head coach have expressed contrasting views about Carl 'the Jackal' Frampton's prospects versus Leo Santa Cruz in New York on Saturday.
The ex-Irish Elite champion meets the unbeaten Mexican at the Barclays Centre for the WBA Super World featherweight title. California-based Santa Cruz, the orthodox defending champion, has won 32 and drawn 1 of his 33 fights so far. Eighteen of 'El Terremoto's' (the Earthquake) victories have been by way of KO, a 55 per cent KO rate. The 27-year-old three-weight world champion, who will have a height and reach advantage in Brooklyn, has fought at 192 since switching codes in 2006.
Barry McGuigan-managed Frampton has 22 wins to his name - 14 by way of KO, a 65 per cent KO rate. The 29-year-old Belfast orthodox has battled his way through 128 rounds since his pro debut in 2009. The KO percentages suggest neither fighter will be hanging round waiting for the judges to tot up points and arrive at a decision.
But ex-Irish Elite champion Eric Donovan, who has sparred Frampton in the past on the Irish High Performance team, predicts it will go the distance: "Santa Cruz is more of a fighter, but he's also very clever. Carl is a bit of both. I think it will be a blockbuster, right up there with the big fights," he said.
"My heart is with Carl, but Santa Cruz is one tough cookie. I can't see a knockout to tell the truth. I can see 12 hard rounds of boxing. I can see it going to a points decision, which will be a huge ask in Santa Cruz's backyard. I saw a change in Carl in a two-year period when we were on the Irish team."
London 2012 captain Darren O'Neill wants his former Irish team-mate to box patient: "Carl has fantastic ability, but it's going to be a difficult task. He has to conserve his energy and be selective with his shots. He also has to be careful as Santa Cruz is essentially a Mexican warrior," said the Kilkenny southpaw.
Pat Ryan, president of the Irish Athletic Boxing Association (IABA) and a former High Performance coach, reckons Frampton has the arsenal to dethrone the defending champion: "He's reigned supreme at super-bantam and he's breaking new ground moving up to feather. He has the tools to deliver success. The entire Irish boxing fraternity will be in his corner tonight."
Former Irish head coach Billy Walsh helped steer Frampton to a silver medal at the 2007 EU Championships at Dublin's National Stadium: "It's an intriguing encounter, with the aggressive, attacking Santa Cruz and the compact, hard-hitting Carl Frampton," he said.
"Cruz will come forward with lots of punches and Carl's ability to counter and have the condition to implement his tactics will decide who will be champion."
Mel Christle, president of the Pro Boxing Union of Ireland, won't led his heart rule his head and believes humidity will be a factor: "I want to see Carl win. But if I'm being hard-headed, for three reasons, he won't. First, Santa Cruz is the best fighter that he's ever met and, secondly, Santa Cruz has a seven-inch reach advantage, which he has used to date to great effect. Thirdly, I believe the high humidity that currently exists in New York will affect a European fighter much more than a Mexican fighter."
Tyrone's Michael Gallagher, a two-time AIBA world referee and judge award winner, believes Frampton can do the business: "It should be a great fight. Obviously, I want to see Carl win it. If he puts the work in, he can do it, I definitely think he can win it," said the internationally acclaimed official.
BRIAN MAGEE
(former world super-middleweight champion)
Carl will have to be careful that he doesn't leave himself open and get caught, as Santa Cruz throws a lot of punches and he will have to have a high work-rate. But I think Carl is the better boxer and I believe he is capable of making history by becoming the first Northern Irish boxer to win a world title in two different weight divisions.
However I think he will need to pounce early in the fight, be aggressive from the start and try to get it over with as quickly as possible as, the longer the fight goes on, I think the more difficult it will become for Carl.
Verdict: Frampton to win in four or five rounds by a stoppage.
HARRY HAWKINS
(Holy Trinity coach and trainer of former world champion Bernard Dunne)
It's going to be an extremely close fight and I expect it to go to the wire and whoever does the most over the 12 rounds will win it, if there is to be a winner. However, I have to say the odds of 25-1 against a draw that some bookies are offering sounds like a good bet.
It could be that one boxer wins seven or eight rounds, but I doubt it. Santa Cruz is the bigger man with the bigger reach and Carl will have to be careful.
Verdict: Draw.
HUGH RUSSELL
(Former British fly-weight champion)
This is a step up for Carl, but I don't think it's a step too far for him. It's by far the biggest fight of his career and I think it's much better for him to be at nine stone than trying to make 8-10. Those four pounds, although seemingly virtually nothing, make a huge difference and he's not having to fight against the scales to make the weight any more.
We shouldn't be misled into thinking that Santa Cruz isn't a good boxer, but I think Carl can go out and actually enjoy the fight. It's just 12 rounds after maybe 190 or 200 of sparring.
Verdict: Frampton to win on points.
JIM WEBB
(Former Commonwealth gold medalist)
Carl is always super-motivated and driven and always fights with his heart as well as his head. He's a great boxer and hits very hard. And I think the underdog tag will take the pressure off. He's done the right thing by going to New York four weeks before the fight to get acclimatised.
If the fight goes the distance and it's close, then I think Santa Cruz will edge it with a home decision, but Carl's backroom team won't let that happen.
Verdict: Frampton to win in 10 or 11 by a stoppage.
CATHAL McMONAGLE
(Former Irish super-heavyweight champion)
I think Carl is definitely more comfortable now that he has moved up a weight and he's fitter and stronger than ever, in my opinion. Santa Cruz likes to keep the tempo high and throws a lot of punches, so Carl will need to be on his guard that they don't get through, but he's got a good chin.
He's got a great team behind him in Barry and Shane McGuigan and they will have no stone left unturned in the build up to the fight. He maybe underestimated Alvarez the last time he fought in America, but that won't happen this time.
Verdict: Frampton to win on points.
