2018 World Cup Qualifying Group D: Wales v Republic of Ireland (Monday, Cardiff City Stadium, 7.45pm)
LAST November the landscape in Group D looked decidedly picturesque from a Republic of Ireland perspective.
They’d grabbed a draw in Serbia, taken full points from minnows Georgia and Moldova and overwhelmed Austria in Vienna.
Martin O’Neill’s men were riding the crest of a wave, post-Euro 2016, while Wales got their qualification campaign off to a stuttering start.
Since then, however, Ireland’s World Cup qualification effort has nose-dived into a bleak, torturous conservatism that has yielded too few points in the second half of the campaign and allowed Wales to assume second spot.
And yet, Ireland’s fate is somehow still in their own hands.
Slovenia’s 2-2 draw with Scotland in last night’s Group F clash did the protagonists in Cardiff a massive favour and, as a result, whoever wins between Ireland and Wales will be guaranteed a play-off berth next month.
A draw might be good enough for the Welsh to progress and would eliminate O’Neill’s men.
Momentum and confidence, not to mention a fervent home support, are all in Wales’ favour – but when faced with the non-negotiable position of having to win, the Republic usually perform above themselves.
That’s the hope in Cardiff this evening.
Rarely do O’Neill’s teams play gung-ho football.
At last night’s press conference the Ireland manager said it was important his team play with their hearts and their heads.
“I think our approach will be very similar to the one against Italy in Lille [Euro 2016] where we knew a win was the only thing that mattered,” O’Neill said.
“We played with a lot of verve, a lot of determination and I thought we closed Italy down very, very quickly, and I think a lot of that will be necessary tomorrow night.
“We created some chances and finally took one with five minutes to go in an epic game.
“I think it’s not that far back in the memory that the players should be considering it when approaching this game.
“But obviously whatever gameplan we have we’re going to try and utilise it as best we can.
“I think there’s a bit of everything in it. Patience – you can be too patient – but at the end of 90 minutes we have to find ourselves in front and I think we’re capable of doing that.”
In terms of team selection, O’Neill has plenty to ponder.
Wes Hoolahan and international rookie Callum O’Dowda were Ireland’s creative hub in Friday night’s 2-0 home win over Moldova – but with James McClean and Robbie Brady free from suspension, they are the ones favoured to make way.
Given his two-goal salvo against the Moldovans, it would be harsh to relegate Daryl Murphy to the bench.
Shane Long could be pushed into a wide role in order for Murphy to be retained as a lone striker.
And as Wales might return to their well-drilled 3-5-2 system, Long’s pace down the sides could be an important weapon.
Of course, it’s worth mentioning that top spot in Group D hasn’t yet been sealed with Wales and the Republic hoping Georgia can cause a massive upset by beating Serbia in Belgrade tonight.
But O’Neill wasn’t holding out much hope of the Serbs slipping up twice on the same weekend.
“That’s tough in Belgrade. They’d have to win the game. I think that would be a tough ask for Georgia to win there.”
It could be a cagey opening in Cardiff this evening – but at some point the shackles will have to come off. Playing without fear is the key to the outcome.
Wales have the better hand. A draw looks on the cards...
