WAY back in August, while compiling my preview of the Premier League season, I received a text from one of my good mates, a
self-styled scourge of the bookies.
“I hope you are tipping Leicester for relegation,” read the message.
“Not quite, but I can see where you are coming from,” was my reply.
Intrigued by this exchange, I had a good look at the transfer business conducted by Claudio Ranieri on the back of the Foxes’ miraculous title victory last term.
To say I wasn’t terribly impressed is something of an understatement, while the additional pressures of a Champion League campaign served as another reason to believe Ranieri’s men could struggle.
They were 16/1 to go down, but I stopped short of that and suggested a bet at 9/4 about them finishing in the bottom half.
If you backed that, you are almost guaranteed a payout, but I can’t help but wishing I’d taken the hint and backed them for the drop.
In the midst of a very bleak winter, a return to European action must have shone like a beacon on the horizon for Ranieri and his players.
The club clearly made a decision to prioritise the Champions League before Christmas, believing their title-winning quality would see them right in the Premier League.
And the Foxes did romp through their European group, with Riyad Mahrez in particular shining.
Yet on the whole, this season has been a disaster for Leicester, with Saturday’s FA Cup exit at the hands of Millwall a new low.
The most depressing thing for the club’s fans is that it wasn’t even a surprise, with the League One club strongly fancied by many.
Leicester have had a miserable few months and return to European action this evening at a low ebb and as virtual certainties to bow out at the last 16 stage, leaving with only a fight against the drop to occupy them – they are 15/8 with Paddy Power to go down now.
Ranieri’s team will have been happy enough when the last 16 draw paired them with Sevilla, but it always looked a hard draw to me, and the Spaniards could easily wipe the floor with the English champions over two legs.
While Leicester have lost their last five in the league without scoring a goal, Sevilla have been in good form, with only one defeat in the last eight, a run of matches that includes a victory over Real Madrid.
They have also put down a title challenge in La Liga, lying three points behind leaders Real, who do have two games in hands.
Sevilla are unlikely to win the league, but a number of seasoned observers see them as dark horses for Champion League glory at 25/1, mainly because they have huge continental know-how, having won the last two Europa Leagues.
I’m not sure they will cut it at the business end, but Jorge Sampaoli’s side have far too much class for Leicester, who have basically reverted to what they are, a team of journeymen who may or may not be good enough for the Premier League.
By contrast, Sampaoli can call on the services of Stevan Jovetic, Samir Nasri and Steven N’zonzi to carve out victories.
Sevilla don’t score loads of goals at home, but I expect them to have it easy enough tonight, and over the two legs.
The home side are 2/5 with Bet365 to win this evening and 1/3 to qualify, while Leicester can be backed at 17/2 with Boylesports to win the away leg and at 11/4 with Sky Bet to go through.
Sevilla are bankers, and the question is how many they win by. I’d suggest a flutter on them minus a goal at 11/10 with Paddy Power, while a punt on the 3-0 home win is also suggested at 9/1.
That outcome would let Ranieri concentrate on staying up before he inevitably leaves in the summer, although that is easier said than done for a team in freefall.
Meanwhile, regular readers will know I’m sweet on the chances of Juventus this term, and they can underline their credentials when they travel to Porto tonight.
Both sides have won their last six games and something has to give.
Nuno is doing a fine job at the helm in his first term at Porto and they are hot on the heels of Benfica on the home front, but Juve are a step up and their class can tell.
Paddy Power go 13/10 about an away win and I’d stick that in with Sevilla minus a goal for a double that pays almost 4/1.
MANCHESTER United are also in European action today when they travel to St Etienne in the Europa League.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s hat-trick in the first leg should have put this one to bed and Jose Mourinho will shuffle the pack with a busy schedule in the weeks ahead.
This evening’s game is not one to get involved in, with United already looking towards Sunday’s EFL Cup final against Southampton at Wembley.
Mourinho has long known the value of getting this piece of silverware in the cabinet early in his managerial reign, having won it in the first season of his first spell at Chelsea, and in the second season on his return.
He will throw all of his big guns at the final and the layers expect United to claim the trophy.
The Red Devils are 2/5 to left the cup and 4/5 to win the final in 90 minutes and that latter price is very appealing as they are in their best run of form since Alex Ferguson retired.
Southampton, meanwhile, virtually downed tools after beating Liverpool in the last four, losing their next three league games before beating hapless Sunderland 4-0 last time out.
New striker Manolo Gabbiadini has settled well and could cause problems, especially if Chris Smalling starts, and the Saints aren’t without hope, but United should be too good, with their big-time players seeing them home.
Ibrahimovic loves big stages like no other and the 15/8 quoted by Sky Bet about the Swede scoring and United winning is well worth a bet.
At slightly bigger odds, United winning and both teams scoring also appeals at 16/5 (William Hill), while I’ll be having a small bet on a 3-1 victory at 16/1, also with Hills.
AFTER a couple of near misses and each-way pay-outs, we finally hit the nail on the head from a golf point of view with Dustin Johnson romping to victory in the Genesis Open at Riviera on Sunday night (right).
The new world number one looked the winner from a long way out and duly delivered by five shots at 9/1 to put a few quid in the kitty for the coming weeks.
The PGA Tour switches coasts this week from California to Florida, with the Honda Classic at the PGA National Course in Palm Beach Gardens attracting a very decent field.
Adam Scott is the defending champion and also the jolly at 12/1 after a very good seasonal bow at Riviera, where he should have finished better than tied 11th.
It would be no surprise if the Aussie prevailed again on a shortish course that puts a premium on placement and strategy, particularly if the forecast wind and rain arrives.
International players have a great record on a course which has more than a hint of links golf to it, with only three Americans winning in 10 renewals at PGA National.
I’m going to stick with the overseas contingent this time round given the distinct possibility of rough weather in Florida.
Scott has strong claims, while Rickie Fowler is worth considering at 16/1, but I might just keep the faith with Sergio Garcia at 18/1 with Bet365.
The Spaniard was on the shortlist last week as well but didn’t really get into the mix, yet his form has been good and his victory in Dubai a couple of weeks ago showed him in a more relaxed light than is normally the case.
He was second in this one to Scott a year ago and will relish the conditions given his fine record in Open Championships that have been played in breezy conditions over the years.
Get Garcia on your side and also have a small each-way punt on Graeme McDowell at 66/1 generally.
The Portrush man is perfectly suited to this course, and has three top 10s in his last five visits, including a fifth last season when he wasn’t in great form coming in.
There has been much to like about the way he has started 2017 with his play better than the bare results suggest and McDowell will be right at home once the wind blows.
Take the 66/1, while the 13/2 quoted by Bet Victor about another top 10 result in this one also makes great appeal.
Finally, I’ll complete the punting plan with another links and poor weather specialist in Branden Grace, who was in the hunt for a long spell at Riviera before falling away.
The South African has carved out a reputation as a major force on tight seaside layouts and his strategic play should stack up well on this course.
He missed the cut here last year but I’m expecting better now and the 45/1 on offer with Stan James about a player of his class is big.
