Sport

Federer is up to the test presented by rival Djokovic

Roger Federer in action at the US Open on Tuesday <br />Picture: PA&nbsp;
Roger Federer in action at the US Open on Tuesday
Picture: PA 
Roger Federer in action at the US Open on Tuesday
Picture: PA 

LAST year’s men’s singles at the US Open in New York was one of the most unpredictable Grand Slams in recent times, and this season’s renewal started along the same lines on Monday night.

Number 14 seed Marin Cilic claimed his first major title at Flushing Meadows 12 months ago as a 100/1 rag, seeing off 10th seed Kei Nishkori in straight sets in the final. And on Monday evening a shock first round exit for Nishikori opened up Cilic’s path to the latter stages once more as he goes in search of a successful defence of the title.

Yet, everything seemed to be going pretty much to plan before the semi-finals a year ago, with the top two seeds, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, having made smooth progress to the last four before both inexplicably came unstuck against players who, while extremely talented and successful in their own right, had time and again come up short against the game’s biggest stars.

In the aftermath of last year’s events in the Big Apple, all the talk was of a changing of the guard. Yet here we are at the outset of the final Grand Slam of 2015, and Djokovic, Federer and 2012 champion Andy Murray dominate the betting, while Nishikori is already out and Cilic has been written off by the layers once more as he can be backed at 66/1 with Sportingbet after an injury-disrupted year.

What we can say with some certainty is that the previous ‘big four’, which also included Rafael Nadal, is no more given the Spaniard’s form and fitness concerns, with Stan Wawrinka making a strong case to be upgraded into that elite group after two Grand Slams in the last two seasons.

Yet, despite the best efforts of the likes of Cilic and Wawrinka, the top three players in the world are some way clear at the head of the betting having dominated the hardcourt season, and one of them is almost certain to walk away with the US Open crown a week on Sunday.

At this point I need to mention a slight disclaimer as the time difference between here and New York leaves open a possibility of having egg on my face, given that Murray, Federer and Wawrinka will all have played their first round matches between the times of writing and reading.

It is fairly safe to assume they should all have progressed, with Murray having, on paper, the hardest opening clash against Aussie bad boy Nick Kyrgios.

Djokovic strolled through his opener against Joao Sousa on Monday night, dropping just three games, and his odds came in slightly to even-money as a result. That price is also a result of the fact he is in the opposite side of the draw to each of the next three players in the betting – Federer (4/1 with Boylesports before last night’s game), Murray (9/2, Paddy Power) and Wawrinka (16/1, Boylesports).

And all things considered, the Serbian world number one is by far the likeliest winner, especially as he should have a fairly trouble-free passage to the last four at least. Yet he is not the sure thing the odds would have you think, and he has made a habit of getting close at Flushing Meadows without getting the job done.

He did win this event in 2011, defeating Nadal in the final, but he has also lost four deciders, two at the hands of the Spaniard, and one apiece to Federer and Murray. And while Djokovic has been the dominant player in Grand Slams this term, winning in Australia and at Wimbledon and losing the French Open final to Wawrinka, recent weeks have also suggested he is a little vulnerable.

Murray beat him in the final of the Rogers Cup in Montreal before Federer did likewise in the Cincinatti Masters decider. That pair arguably come in with better form and in a more confident frame of mind, and there is certainly more value to be had in choosing one of them, or indeed backing both.

Naturally they will have a harder run to the final, where a fresh Djokovic will almost certainly await, but on the other hand whoever emerges from the bottom half of the draw will be battle-hardened and will carry huge momentum.

As the younger man, Murray would appear to be better-equipped for a tough couple of weeks, but I might just side with the old stylist that is Federer. The Swiss maestro has been in scintillating form of late, with his serve almost untouchable, and he did swat Murray aside at Wimbledon before running into an inspired Djokovic in the final.

Doubts persist about his ability to beat the best over five sets, and he hasn’t reached the final in New York since 2009, but if his serve stays at the level it has been of late, he might not need to play five sets too often and he could just roll the clock back and capture a first major title since Wimbledon in 2012.

Certainly, Federer rates as a fine bet at 4/1, while the 2/1 offered by Paddy Power about him facing Djokovic in the decider is also a fair price.

Finally, it might be asking too much of Cilic to defend his title, but Nishikori’s loss has opened up his path to the last four and there is little for him to fear in the second quarter of the draw, so get on him at 9/4 (Sky Bet) to take that section.

The women’s singles, meanwhile, does have the look of a procession for Serena Williams, who is going for her fourth US Open in-a-row, her seventh overall, and the calendar Grand Slam.

The withdrawal through injury of Maria Sharapova and first round defeats for Ana Ivanovic and Carla Suarez Navarro means there are no top-10 players in her half of the draw, and while I’ve seen better 5/6 bets than Serena, I can’t remember when.

IF THE ‘big three’ are set to dominate the US Open at Flushing Meadows, the same could well be the case in the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston.

The second of the four FedEx Cup play-off events, this one starts on Friday to ensure a finish on Labor Day next Monday, and all of the leading lights tee it up. And Labor Day might just be all about Jason Day, who is rapidly turning the two-horse race at the top of the world rankings between Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy into a three-runner affair.

Day claimed The Barclays in New Jersey on Sunday by six shots to take his third victory in four events and underline his own claims to be regarded as the best player in the world at present.

Because of a quirk in the system, McIlroy assumed the world number one position once more without even playing in New Jersey, as Spieth’s miserable missed cut saw him lose enough points to fall down to second.

Day is now well clear of the rest in third, but such is his form that he is actually the favourite with the bookies in Boston this week, with Paddy Power offering a best price of 13/2. McIlroy is next in the betting at 8/1 with Ladbrokes, while Spieth can be backed at 17/2 with Coral.

All three have form at this course as well, with McIlroy winning here in 2012, Day finishing second in 2010 and third a year later, and Spieth closing with a round of 62 to share fourth two years ago.

Any of the trio could well win, but I’m going to look just below them in the betting and stick with Henrik Stenson (right), who chased Day home on Sunday and therefore gave us a return on an each-way tip at 28/1 last week.

The Swede won this one two years ago on his way to claiming the FedEx Cup crown, and he is returning to that form as three top-six finishes in his last five events shows. He hits the ball long and straight and is putting well, which is crucial in an event that is usually a birdie-fest, so get on Stenson at 16/1 with Paddy Power to upset the top trio.

At a bigger price, I’m going to suggest an each-way punt on Luke Donald at 90/1, also with Paddy Power. The former world number one is emerging from a slump in form and his recent consistency should soon be rewarded with a really good finish.

He did enough last week to play his way into the top 100 in the standings and reach this event, and will need another good showing to be in the 70 for the third play-off, the BMW Championship, in a fortnight’s time. And that could come this week, given that Donald was joint-second in this one in 2010 and shared third a year later.

TAKE A PUNT


Roger Federer, US Open men’s singles, 4/1 (Boylesports)


Federer v Novak Djokovic final, 2/1 (Paddy Power)


Marin Cilic, to win second quarter, 9/4 (Sky Bet)


Henrik Stenson, Deutsche Bank Championship, e/w, 16/1 (Paddy Power)


Luke Donald, Deutsche Bank Championship, e/w, 90/1 (Paddy Power)