EACH of golf’s four Major championships have worked hard to establish their own identity over the years, but the US Open has gone a bit far in recent times.
While the Masters is all about Augusta, the Open Championship is about links golf and the USPGA is the ‘last-chance saloon’ for the season, the US Open has long been billed as the toughest test in golf.
The organisers, the United States Golf Association, have always prided themselves on setting up their courses to be as difficult as possible, with winning scores of level-par and above common place.
However, in the last couple of years the USGA has lost the run of itself, particularly in 2015 when they took the second Major of the season to Chambers Bay in Seattle, essentially a massive crazy golf course.
Oakmont was a fairer test last term, but controversy wasn’t far away either as a rules infringement meant Dustin Johnson played the last few holes not knowing how far in front he was, if he was at all.
In the end, it was just as well ‘DJ’ strolled home with a bit to spare, saving some of the USGA’s blushes, yet they really have to get things right when this season’s renewal gets going tomorrow.
Once more the event has been taken to a new course, Erin Hills in Wisconsin, which promises to ask more unique questions of the big guns in attendance.
It is the first time the US Open has visited Wisconsin, and the first time in 25 years it has been played on a par 72 course.
The layout itself has been described by the designers as a ‘heartland’ track – halfway between a links and a park course.
It is also extremely long, and as always in this event will have penal rough, so scoring won’t be low.
Yet most of the players have been reasonably impressed with what they’ve seen, with the majority saying it is more links than park, given that the natural topography has created massive undulations and a smattering of blind shots.
Therefore, while it is not a pure links test, the emphasis when looking for a winner should be on those who have performed well on that type of layout, especially when the weather hasn’t been great, as the wind should blow at times.
The other thing that can’t be ignored is US Open pedigree because, while the event moves around, the same names come to the fore time and again.
Johnson, the reigning champion and world number one, heads the betting at a best-priced 8/1 with Ladbrokes and has become something of a US Open specialist, with his victory at Oakmont following on from an agonising second at Chambers Bay.
‘DJ’ will feel very confident on a course that should really suit him as a long, accurate driver who performs well around the greens, which have plenty of run-off areas and require a deft touch.
But defending champions have a terrible record, with none retaining the title since Curtis Strange in 1989.
In addition, the feeling is that Johnson might be going off the boil a little after a flying start to the season, and I’m not a fan this time.
Likewise, there are enough negatives about Rory McIlroy to leave him alone at 14/1.
The Holywood man is playing his first event back after a rib injury and is bound to be undercooked going into an event he doesn’t have a great record in, his victory at a rain-soaked Congressional in 2011 aside.
I can’t trust Jordan Spieth either as the course looks a bit on the long side and his form has been erratic.
Of the market leaders, Jason Day is by far the most appealing, and I’ll return to him in a while.
For now, however, I’ll concentrate on the fact the last six Major winners have been first-timers, and three of those – Johnson, Henrik Stenson and Masters champion Sergio Garcia – have cast aside doubts about their nerve after a number of near misses.
At various times all of that trio have carried the mantle of ‘best player never to win a Major’ and it is a title they’ve gladly shed.
It has now arguably moved on to Rickie Fowler, and I believe he could very quickly pass it to another unfortunate soul.
Having looked at the course, Fowler appears ideal for this week and has to be backed at the general 22/1 on offer.
The world number nine has been playing the best golf of his career in 2017, getting in the mix nearly every week, and he has already tasted victory at the Honda Classic at the end of February.
He was also second in The Memorial 10 days ago, and even his missed cut at the St Jude Classic last Friday might work in his favour as it allowed him to see Erin Hills earlier than planned.
Surely Fowler will like what he sees given his pedigree in links events, having won the Scottish Open in 2015 and been second in the Open at Birkdale in 2014.
He was also runner-up in the US Open at Pinehurst three years ago, and there are plenty of similarities between that venue and Erin Hills, particularly around the greens, where Fowler is a wizard.
He also hits the ball long and straight and ticks all of the boxes, so at 22/1 he has to be backed to make it seven first-time Major winners on the bounce.
I mentioned Jason Day earlier and I’m loathe to leave him out, even at the 14/1 generally on offer.
The Australian has endured a tough few months as his mother battles cancer, but has cut a more positive figure of late and his last two outings have seen a return to form, with a second at the Byron Nelson Classic followed by a share of 15th at The Memorial.
When Day is in a good frame of mind the rest need to watch out, and he should be well suited to Erin Hill as a monstrous hitter who keeps the ball in play and putts well.
He is also a US Open specialist, having finished second to McIlroy in 2011 and been fourth, ninth and eighth in the last three years.
It is only a matter of time until he wins this event and it may well be now, so the 14/1 is probably a fair reflection of his chances.
Having picked two players towards the head of the betting, my other three against the field have a bit more juice in their prices.
First up is Jason Dufner, who won The Memorial 10 days ago and will be in good heart, not that he ever shows it.
It is the manner of that victory as much as the win itself that appeals to me in the context of this week as Dufner shrugged aside a nightmare third round, when he let slip a big lead, to come back and claim the title on the Sunday.
Every player will make mistakes over the next few days so the ability to bounce back is more crucial than ever and the unflappable Dufner is a master at that.
He is also something of a master on US Open courses, finishing fourth in 2012 and ’13 and eighth last term, so he could outrun his odds of 66/1 (Bet Victor).
Branden Grace is another who has gained a reputation as a live contender in this event.
The South African was right in the mix for 69 holes at Chambers Bay in 2015 before an errant drive saw him slip to fourth, while he was fifth at Oakmont last year.
And while 2017 hasn’t seen him at his best, Grace warmed up for this by recording a top-10 in the BMW PGA at Wentworth, while his low ball flight should stand him in good stead if the Wisconsin winds blow.
He has far stronger claims than the quote of 50/1 with William Hill suggests, while I’d also reckon he’s worth backing to be top South African at 5/2 generally ahead of main rivals Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen.
Finally, Shane Lowry will be out to atone for letting this Major slip last term when he took a four-shot lead into the final round before fading into a share of second place.
The Offaly man understandably took some time to get over that, but he says he gained a lot of confidence from getting into the heat of battle and will relish what lies ahead over the next few days.
Lowry always plays his best stuff from this time of year onwards, and comes in on the back of a tie for sixth at Wentworth, when a rollercoaster finish put paid to his chances of victory.
There was much to like about his game that week, as there was when tying for 15th at The Memorial, and that showing last year and his ninth at Chambers Bay mark him down as a player with a realistic chance.
Lowry is a fine driver of a ball and is blessed with wonderful touch around the greens so back him each-way at 70/1, while the 4/1 quoted by Ladbrokes about him being top Irish player is generous given McIlroy’s fitness issues and Graeme McDowell’s inconsistency.
Lowry will be hoping for a good week in Wisconsin, as will the USGA.
