Opinion

Fionnuala O Connor: Election promises some upsets in north but it's the British vote that matters on Brexit

Another narrow Tory majority seems the likeliest bet
Another narrow Tory majority seems the likeliest bet Another narrow Tory majority seems the likeliest bet

One of the first things politicians learn about looking for votes is that people tell them the first thing that comes into their heads.

For some, dragged away from whatever they were doing by a knock on the door, that might be a polite nothing. From others, it will be a blaze of the anger Boris Johnson walked into or sat beside in Yorkshire, entirely predictable fury about councils having no resources for disaster like flooding. Because the Conservatives cut and cut again at public spending, though now the Johnson promises equal if not outdo Jeremy Corbyn’s.

Which will win most hearts? Corbyn is so far behind and the weight of anti-Corbyn media is such that another narrow Tory majority seems the likeliest bet.

The prospects here are harder to foretell than they have been for years. Does it matter? In another hung parliament the SDLP would have us believe, and may even believe themselves, that one or a magical two of their people at Westminster will have an electric charge, shift the mood, educate the resolutely ignorant. And be a reality check or at least a counter-balance on DUP arrogance.

It would electrify the SDLP mood for sure, and be the most curious of outcomes for a party on its uppers. Claire Hanna, the more likely winner of the two, like Colum Eastwood has a considerably more winning way with her than the party as a whole. Their Westminster presence is hard to see as vital except in the most unusual circumstances. But then these are odd times.

Will it make the least difference if the DUP lose North and South Belfast? The party is certainly fighting hard and dirty in both constituencies. Beyond those two and Foyle at a stretch, dramatic change looks unlikely, though the loss of Nigel Dodds would certainly shake the DUP.

To see Emma Little Pengelly replaced by Hanna would simply confirm beyond any lingering denial what has been a shift over decades in the political colour of old-money, upper middle-class Belfast. A Dodds defeat by Sinn Féin’s John Finucane would be the outcome of a sharper, shorter transformation, contested and stalled by blocking housing change, impossible to halt.

Foyle is different. For Eastwood to win there would have at least the air of righting an upset, remedying the loss of an SDLP settled berth; John Hume’s seat.

Sinn Féin possession may be more secure than the SDLP hope, Elisha McCallion more assured. Impressive media performances by Eastwood flicker in and out of sight. SDLP sense of entitlement is only a shadow of its former self. The sums in South Belfast favour Hanna more. Eastwood may need Aontú to take a nibble out of SF, and he might turn out to be well short of displacing them.

Those are the constituencies, on past performance and present form, most likely to change hands. What polls started running was something else. Excitable number-crunchers are unnerving to watch. An Alliance surge; the very words stir hearts in a party that has clung to belief in its mission against the odds. Being neither unionist or nationalist though never socialist; that’s a tough act to sustain. Almost all parties talk up their chances as campaigns begin but this time around the valiant and talented Naomi Long surely went beyond the bounds of realism.

There is still a month to go. Dramatic revelations are not the only game-changers. People under pressure offend without intent, run out of steam and conviction, mis-speak. Totting up gaffes by both Conservatives and Labour has kept the British media busy, with Lib Dem credibility still hard to gauge. Watching Johnson blustering out of London into small-town and rural England is only matched as an excruciating exercise by listening to Stephen Barclay or James Cleverly.

But it’s the British election that matters, as most people here well know. Brexit, scarcely begun, is not our call.