It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, but first we have to get this torrid Westminster election off our radar.
Boris Johnson might get enough support to continue as prime minister, but you wouldn’t bet the house on it. Even if he wins a clear majority, it is hard to predict what will happen vis-à-vis Brexit. Presumably it will go ahead, but will there be a trade and regulatory border down the Irish Sea? If so, the Conservative and Unionist Party might well be asked to drop the U-word from its title.
If Johnson needs to knock on the door of the Democratic Unionist Party for their votes in a hung parliament, he will no doubt be asked to make a dramatic U-turn on the current Brexit deal. In the event that Jeremy Corbyn and the Scottish National Party come back with enough seats to put together a majority coalition, we can expect a second referendum offering a choice between a softer Brexit and no Brexit at all.
The price of support for a Corbyn-led government was reiterated by SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon at a summit meeting of the British-Irish Council in Dublin last Friday. That would of course be a fresh referendum on Scottish independence which, if a majority voted to leave the United Kingdom, would cause some tremors on this green island of ours. As a moderate nationalist and ‘small r’ republican, I am consistently disappointed at the low level of solidarity and even communication between the advocates of Scottish and Welsh independence on the one hand and a 32-county Irish state on the other (I did notice, however, that Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald spoke at a Plaid Cymru conference in Swansea on October 5.)
As for the Westminster election outlook in ‘Norniron’ the primary focus is of course on the DUP. You wouldn’t risk too much of your life-savings on their prospects of holding onto Belfast North which looks as if it will go down to the wire. The DUP are widely-expected to lose out in Belfast South — although they will obviously remain the largest party overall, certainly on the unionist side. Sinn Féin will have some tough battles, e.g., in the constituency of Foyle, but taking Belfast North would be quite a feather in their cap.
The SDLP should easily win Belfast South, which at least means we won’t have the current ridiculous situation where no northern nationalist sits in the Commons chamber. Colum Eastwood might also take Foyle, partly because Sinn Féin will lose votes over the abortion issue to Dr Anne McCloskey of the Aontú party. A victory for Tom Elliott of the Ulster Unionist Party in Fermanagh-South Tyrone over Sinn Féin incumbent Michelle Gildernew looks problematic, although it would undo some of the political self-harm inflicted on the party by its new leader’s premature declaration that there would be a UUP candidate in all 18 northern constituencies.
The British-Irish Council, set up under the Good Friday Agreement, provides a forum where Irish, Scottish and Welsh nationalists meet, as well as representatives of the governments of the UK, Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey. It was very unfortunate that last Friday’s gathering, hosted by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, did not include anyone from the suspended Stormont Executive. In that context it was noteworthy that secretary of state Julian Smith placed considerable emphasis on the fact that, if there is no agreement by January 13 between the parties to restore power-sharing, then legislation requires that a general election to the Stormont Assembly has to take place. He called on Arlene, Michelle and the rest to "get stuck in".
For her part, Nicola Sturgeon described the Westminster contest as “a pivotal and defining election”. This could be true, not only for Scotland, but in its own way for Northern Ireland. Would a victory for John Finucane in Belfast North reduce the appetite in the DUP for a return to power-sharing or could it have the opposite effect? We’ll surely have plenty to talk about as the pudding is served at the dinner-table. But whatever happens, if one may adapt the title of a popular movie, we mustn’t let Brexit become “the Grinch that stole Christmas”.
